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Likes ReceivedBMNR/ SBET Extreme Value Deduction 0826
After Powell's dovish remarks on 8.22, ETH broke through the ATH of 4.8k, peaking near 5k. This Monday, as the crypto market pulled back to 4.4k, we continue to perform extreme value analysis by tracking mNAV.
Core assumptions: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 1.71 million coins (a weekly increase of 190k), with the growth rate slowing compared to the previous 300k. It is speculated that the surge in ETH prices over the weekend led Tom Lee to slow down the accumulation pace. Currently, mNAV is 1.45, and BMNR ranks second in Crypto Treasury's net assets after MSTR, being the top in ETH Treasury. A premium of ~1.5 is considered reasonable.
SBET currently holds 720k coins, with an mNAV of 1.07, and the premium has dropped to a low level. It will announce its coin accumulation numbers before Tuesday's market open. Based on historical data, the weekly increase is estimated at 90k, projecting a total of 810k.
Given the current volatility in the crypto market, ETH's price movements have become the dominant factor. Therefore, we will primarily refer to ETH's support and resistance levels to perform extreme value analysis for the price action before next Monday's (9.1) coin accumulation update, excluding any unexpected ATM dilution.
Conclusion:
For BMNR, if ETH rebounds to 4.9k, mNAV will appreciate to 1.6, corresponding to a stock price of 62. If ETH continues to drop to 4.3k, mNAV will remain at 1.5, corresponding to a stock price of 50. The extreme value range is thus between 50 and 62. Reiterating my view, I believe the current 50 is equivalent to 30 half a month ago, both corresponding to mNAV ~1.5 at different stages. This is the fair premium for BMNR as a leader, and prices below this are undervalued.
For SBET, mNAV remains unchanged at 1.06. If ETH rebounds to 4.9k, the corresponding stock price is 23.5. If ETH drops to 4.3k, the corresponding stock price is 20. The extreme value range is thus between 20 and 23.5.
Finally, a few additional points on ETH Treasury analysis:
- Analyzing Treasury companies should avoid being overly rigid. For example, why are stock prices still low when ETH is at 4800? Because Treasury company stock prices generally follow ETH's macro trend, but the stock price fluctuations are determined by mNAV, which is dynamic. Its rate of change acts as the second derivative of the stock price, so tracking this core metric is key.
- A pullback after breaking resistance is not a downtrend. I remain bullish on ETH's future trajectory.
Risk disclosure: Personal opinion, not investment advice.
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