NVIDIA Q2 earnings countdown! $46 billion revenue? Three key factors determine market trends
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) will release its latest quarterly earnings report on August 27, 2025 (this Wednesday), and market expectations are at an all-time high! Analysts generally predict that the company's Q2 revenue will surge to $46 billion, a 53% year-over-year increase! Ahead of the earnings report, at least nine Wall Street institutions have rushed to raise their target prices, pushing the average target price to a historic high of $194.
Three Key Factors That Will Determine Market Sentiment
1. Prospects in the Chinese Market: Focus on the H20 Chip
The market is closely watching NVIDIA's outlook on the Chinese AI chip market. Last month, the U.S. approved NVIDIA's sale of the AI chip H20 to China, but JP Morgan expects NVIDIA will not include H20 revenue in its guidance due to: lengthy and uncertain U.S. licensing approval times, and China discouraging local companies from deploying NVIDIA GPUs over "backdoor" concerns.
2. High Valuation: Can Growth Continue?
NVIDIA's current valuation is as high as 40 times its expected earnings for the next year, far exceeding the average for tech stocks. Despite expectations of slowing revenue growth, Morgan Stanley analysts emphasize: "The market values relative growth capability more. In this regard, NVIDIA still performs exceptionally well." JP Morgan's survey shows investors' high expectations: they anticipate Q2 revenue growth of about 60% year-over-year, with guidance for the next quarter maintaining ~55% year-over-year growth, ~3.5% above current market consensus.
3. Data Center Business: Demand for Blackwell Chips
NVIDIA's short-term performance is influenced by supplier dynamics, with Blackwell chip capacity expansion now the market's biggest focus. Morgan Stanley notes that core ODM manufacturers like Foxconn are projected to triple server rack shipments this year, with top four suppliers potentially doubling Q3 output. Deutsche Bank's latest report shows Blackwell chip revenue surged to $24 billion in Q1, doubling from Q4's $11 billion, demonstrating explosive growth. Crucially, this growth offset ~$8 billion in revenue losses tied to China market factors.
With Blackwell's continued ramp-up and strong demand, Deutsche Bank predicts NVIDIA's Q2 revenue will reach ~$46 billion, up 53% year-over-year, slightly exceeding Wall Street consensus!
NVIDIA's report isn't just about itself—it will determine whether the semiconductor sector continues its rally or faces a collective pullback. Below are key affected companies and their YTD performance:
| Company | YTD Performance | Leveraged/Inverse ETFs |
| $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) | +35.38% | $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL.US)$Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF(NVDD.US)$AXS 1.5X NVDA Bear Daily ETF(NVDS.US) |
| $AMD(AMD.US) | +37.94% | $GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF(AMDL.US)$Direxion Daily AMD Bear 1X Shares(AMDD.US) |
| $Broadcom(AVGO.US) | +29.23% | $Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AVGO ETF(AVGX.US)$Direxion Daily AVGO Bear 1X Shares(AVS.US) |
| $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) | +21.79% | $Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares(TSMX.US)$Direxion Daily TSM Bear 1X Shares(TSMZ.US) |
| $Intel(INTC.US) | +21.45% | $GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF(INTW.US) |
| $Coreweave(CRWV.US) | +128.47% | $Leverage Shares 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CRWG.US)$Tradr 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CWVX.US) |
With earnings imminent, how to play NVIDIA options? How to interpret key option data? What to watch when investing? Click for options guide>>
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