不奋东西
2025.09.06 14:40

Whether to hold or sell AMD is your own choice.

portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

$AMD(AMD.US) has recently been in a phase of pullback and relatively high volatility.
Today, the profit sharing from Longbridge has arrived again, and seeing everyone so concerned and expressing their views, as a Commentator, I still want to share my perspective—this is not investment advice.
1. The pullback is driven by news events (Broadcom's OpenAI customization, U.S.-Japan talks on strengthening semiconductor export restrictions to China, rating downgrades, etc.), and it's also a choice for institutions to take profits and adjust positions. It's highly likely that with the interest rate cuts, this 1-2 weeks will continue to see pullback and volatility.
2. Humanity entering the era of intelligent computing is a certain event, and the self-sufficiency and control of chips and energy for each country is a developmental trend. Examples include the U.S. AI Action Plan and China's self-developed AI chips requiring security evaluations, as well as the Yashan Hydropower Station.
3. The moat of AI chips isn't just about performance but also ecosystem. Thus, NVIDIA remains the dominant player, while AMD's compatibility with CUDA is decent, allowing it to follow and benefit.
4. GPUs are more versatile, while ASICs are experts in specific areas but have weaker ecosystems. GPUs can handle both inference and training. For example, Google's TPU is well-optimized for its own algorithms, and AWS has its own chips, now several generations in, customized for its business. To market these, you'd need to operate like a company and build an ecosystem, all while being a competitor to major AI firms—maintaining independence is nearly impossible.
All companies want good performance, affordability, and the ability to switch without being locked in. I think NVIDIA can maintain its lead for about five more years and even reduce prices further. At least in China, apart from Huawei, other chips claim CUDA compatibility.
5. Consider what your investment framework and goals are.
AMD is definitely not the best bet for AI chips, with its market share at 10-15%, a slice wrested from the big players. But AMD can indeed make you money—I've made more from it than from day trading.
The company's fundamentals are solid, and right now, it's a game between retail and institutional investors—otherwise, where would the profits come from?
Whether long-term or short-term, setting profit-taking and stop-loss points is crucial. Buy low, sell high, and take profits when you can. For long-term plays, accumulate gradually, at least keeping a base position to lower its cost, possibly even to negative, without giving up future growth potential. Also, consider how much capital you can allocate to AMD.
Make your choice based on your framework, like the decision shared by @退场. We can't change the AI trend or AMD and Jensen Huang, so while operating within your framework, keep an eye on the company's fundamentals—earnings reports, AI cluster developments, and data center construction updates.

Appendix: Generated by grok
AMD's competitive landscape:
NVIDIA: Dominates AI GPUs, leads in CUDA ecosystem; AMD's ROCm still lags.
Intel: Competes in x86 CPUs; AMD is gaining server market share (EPYC vs. Xeon).
Broadcom: Rising in AI ASICs; OpenAI orders threaten AMD's standardized GPUs.
Qualcomm/Arm: Challenges AMD's PC business in mobile and edge AI.
AMD outlook: 2025 revenue projected to exceed $30B, AI revenue up 25%, analyst target price $180 (peak $210). But custom chip trends (Broadcom, Google TPU) and export restrictions add short-term volatility.

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