HK Stock Subscription | Hesai Technology's "U+H" Listing, Is There Much Meat in This Lidar Leader?

For the conclusion, see the bottom

[IPO Details]

[Company] $Hesai(HSAI.US) $HESAI-W(02525.HK)

Hesai Technology-W is a global leader in LiDAR research and manufacturing, with products widely used in passenger and commercial vehicles supporting advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), as well as in autonomous vehicles and various robotic applications such as delivery robots and mobile robots.

Based on revenue, the company was the world's largest LiDAR supplier in 2022, 2023, and 2024. See article for status: Hesai Technology-W passed the hearing, launching a global LiDAR leader with L2 intelligent driving blockbuster! Comprehensive analysis! (Including Aox's listing performance)

Hesai, through the ASIC path, became the only LiDAR company in the industry to independently develop all key components (including lasers, detectors, laser drivers, analog front ends, analog-to-digital converters, digital signal processors, and controllers), with strong self-research capabilities optimizing product costs and gross margins. The main product lines currently are passenger cars, autonomous driving, and robots.

[Products]

The main product lines currently are passenger cars, autonomous driving, and robots.

Hesai's main products are still the AT128, ATX, XT series and Pandar series.

From the product positioning perspective, the hot new product in 2024, ATX is only 64 lines (recognition capability), mainly targeting the low-end L2 market as a standard for intelligent driving, matching the current car companies' "intelligent driving equality" strategy, integrating intelligent driving into all models. Moreover, ATX is priced particularly low (less than half of AT128), and is compact, extremely cost-effective, so it's not hard to understand the explosive sales.

Regarding high-end products, Hesai has already laid out plans, including: L4 level chips AT1440 (mass production will start in the second half of 2025) + blind spot LiDAR FTX combination (mass production not yet determined), L3 level ETX (designated by a top European OEM for many years, mass delivery will start at the end of 2026), with promising prospects.

[Customers] Rich in customers, many big companies

Hesai's top five customers have changed as follows: for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, and for the three months ended March 31, 2025, the revenue from the top five customers accounted for 53.1%, 67.5%, 59.9%, and 68.3% of total revenue, respectively. After 2024, General Motors' Cruise terminated, Leapmotor$LEAPMOTOR(09863.HK) , Li Auto became the company's main customers.

Hesai has established mass production fixed-point cooperation relationships with 24 domestic and foreign automakers. This quarter, it won 20 model fixed-point contracts from 9 leading car companies, with plans to deliver in 2025-26. Core customers include (Li Auto/Leapmotor) one of them, Geely$GEELY AUTO(00175.HK) , Great Wall Motors$GWMOTOR(02333.HK) , Changan Automobile and other leading car companies. This quarter, it also won a new fixed-point model from a joint venture brand under Toyota Motor, with plans for mass production in 2026. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

[Financials] Strong start in 2024

The annual report performance is not much to look at, let's look at the quarterly data:

In terms of revenue, looking at the shipment data below, apart from the Q1 off-season, revenue growth is relatively stable year-on-year, and from the second half of 2024, performance began to explode, with growth rates continuously rising.

In terms of gross margin, it has steadily rebounded over the past three quarters. Last quarter (2024Q4), the gross margin was dragged down by changes in product structure, while in 2024Q2 and Q3, there was a large amount of development service revenue + an increase in the proportion of high-end products, leading to a relatively high gross margin. Overall, the company's gross margin is steadily rising. (Hesai's gross margin drivers include: widespread application of self-developed ASIC chips, increased product integration, economies of scale in mass production, cost optimization through technology, and further expansion of shipment volume is expected to continue to improve)

In terms of profitability, Hesai has achieved two turnarounds in the past three quarters. Regarding the issue of turning losses into profits, Hesai was targeted by a short report from Blue Orca Capital, accusing it of making a profit in 2024Q4 due to receiving a $20 million termination fee from General Motors' Cruise. However, the overall performance in the following quarters was good, with another profit in 2025Q2, no need to say more about the turnaround.

In terms of shipments, Hesai achieved explosive growth in 2024Q4 and 2025Q2. In 2024Q4robot orders exploded + ADAS grew steadily, and in 2025Q1, the replacement of ATX and AT128 continued, in 2025Q2ADAS shipments achieved a doubling growth quarter-on-quarter, showing strong market demand for ATX with high cost performance, with ATX products accounting for over 70%.

[Industry] High growth in the industry, Hesai is the leader

The global LiDAR industry's revenue increased from $300 million in 2020 to $1.6 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.6%, and is expected to increase to $17.1 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 61.2%. Hesai is number one globally, with a significant proportion of overseas business (26%). However, domestic business faces high-end competition from Huawei and RoboSense, ranking third.

[Valuation]

①Reasonable valuation: Hesai's market value at this listing is 34.3 billion. Based on 2024 revenue, RoboSense's PS is 11.8, and Hesai's PS is 16.6, slightly higher; but based on the 2025 growth forecast, RoboSense's PS is 10.7 (assuming a 10% year-on-year growth), and Hesai's PS is 10.75 (assuming a 40% year-on-year growth), nearly consistent. RoboSense's 10% is overestimated (actually +7.72% in the last two quarters), and Hesai's 40% is underestimated (actually +46.3%, +53.9% in the last two quarters). Considering Hesai's high overseas market share + turnaround level, the overall valuation of 34.4 billion is relatively reasonable.

②Normal level of Hong Kong-US premium: Hesai's US stock rose to $28.23 before the market, equivalent to about 220 HKD. Hong Kong stocks are 3.6% more expensive than US stocks (H/US), with dual listings in Hong Kong and the US + linked to new energy, while Li Auto$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) US stock pre-market equivalent is about 91.1 HKD, H/US is 1.2%, XPeng$XPENG-W(09868.HK) pre-market equivalent is about 79.54 HKD, H/US is -0.3%. Hesai's 3.6% is still considered a normal level, after all, market enthusiasm is there, US still mainly tracks H, overall looking at the sentiment of H shares.

[Margin] Margin 26.27 times, total amount 10.2 billion, enthusiasm is okay.

[Placement] Mechanism B, public placement lock 10%, the entire plate is 3.876 billion, public placement is less than 400 million.

[Cornerstone] 6 companies, accounting for 29.76%. Including Hillhouse, China Life, Grab Inc., WT Asset Management, Hongda Group, Commando Global Fund, etc.

Grab is a Nasdaq-listed company with a current market value of 21 billion, operating a super app (multi-service integration), with ride-hailing/delivery services as the main focus, known as the Singapore Uber. It is currently cooperating with the Singapore government to develop autonomous driving, deploying delivery drones and autonomous vehicles, and invested in WeRide in August this year.

[Sponsor]

Overall okay. CICC is the main sponsor and stable, with recent performance being decent; Guotai has limited participation, with mixed results; CMB has performed relatively strongly.

[Sector] Upward

The recent trend of US stocks mainly looks at financial or shipment data. Hesai's market started with strong performance in 24Q3 and announced strong Q4 + full-year guidance. The performance in the last two periods, 2024Q4 and 2025Q2, was strong, overall driven by performance + new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year.

Subscription: Can participate

Hesai is a good company, Mechanism B locks 10%, but the plate is large, with dual pricing, not much meat, the key is still to look at Hesai's sentiment in H shares, but those who can go to HK can also come to the US to buy, unlike A+H which is played by foreign capital, looking at the future Hong Kong Stock Connect for mainland purchases?

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