Rate Of ReturnAI begins to diverge, rate cut in September, is the pullback an opportunity?
Friends, long time no see. I've been very busy lately.
I still want to take more time to share some trading strategies and experiences with everyone, after all, the process of sharing is also a process of improvement 😄
1. Market News
The weak September non-farm payroll report has further strengthened expectations for a September rate cut, although the market had already anticipated this. The next Fed meeting will be held on September 16-17.
The AI boom is ongoing, and the performance and stock prices of tech companies theoretically should rise accordingly. However, the market is also wary of these overvalued tech giants. We can see the recent divergence in tech stocks, with NVDA and AMD experiencing significant pullbacks. However, the Nasdaq continues to hit new highs, primarily driven by Google and Apple.
Quoting a big shot: "The U.S. stock market is like 'when one door closes, another opens.' If other tech giants take turns rising, the tech bull market can still be sustained."
2. Individual Stocks
$Robinhood(HOOD.US), along with NiuGu app, has been added to the S&P 500, a major positive. Both stocks surged 8% in pre-market trading. HOOD has brought me significant profits this year—one right move leads to another. Spotting a good stock and holding it long-term is that simple.
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), currently the strongest among the Magnificent 7, has a stable trend. I remain bullish. A short-term pullback is inevitable after such a sharp rise—consider short-term opportunities on a 1% dip. Hold core positions firmly.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) broke support last Friday. I’d add on dips—it’s up 0.4% pre-market, and I’m considering a swing trade tonight. Core positions won’t change. One thing’s clear: NVIDIA won’t peak this year.
$Broadcom(AVGO.US) reported earnings on Friday. Its ASIC chips could pressure general-purpose GPUs, gapping up 9% at open and rising 1.4% pre-market—no entry left. But ASIC isn’t replaceable yet, so opportunities may arise later.
$AMD(AMD.US), the third player, suffers most when the top two compete. It fell nearly 7% Friday—a golden opportunity for tech stocks. I’ll consider entering after stabilization this week.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) is set to release an epic AI chip. From Master Plan 4.0 to trillion-dollar compensation incentives to this AI chip, I think Musk can’t have it all—focus on core products. I won’t add TSLA soon. My core position has low cost basis, so no worries. Technically, it’s consolidated for 4 months—20-day MA is support. Bullish mid-term.
$Circle(CRCL.US) broke 136 support—short-term trend looks terrible. Already cut losses. Lesson learned: Set profit targets! No targets? Prepare to stop losses.
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK): I traded the Bollinger Band breakout and exited Friday. Small gain, but such clear opportunities are rare—stay sharp.
$POP MART(09992.HK) was added to an index today but fell sharply. I’ll watch before considering entry. Target: 265.
3. HK IPO
$DAHON TECH(02543.HK): We secured anchor shares. Doubled at open—expected returns. Public allotment would likely require lottery even with top-tier bids, so institutional placement is the way. New rules hurt retail—I’ll prioritize institutional placements to catch time windows. Invest only in high-probability bets.
$GEEKPLUS-W(02590.HK) surged 40% since July IPO on strong interim results and buy ratings (e.g., Deutsche Bank). Finally paid off.
Unitree Robotics may list—possibly in A-shares or HK. If HK, it’s a must-buy: strong R&D, cost efficiency, and high demand in commercialization year one.
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