Chery Motors IPO lottery analysis: The current margin is so low, is it below expectations? Should the subscription plan be changed?

1、As of writing, Chery Automobile$CHERY AUTO(09973.HK) publicly shows 140x, but the actual figure is 170x

At first glance, it seems Chery is even colder than the previous Health 160 subscription. Is it due to market divergence, poor company fundamentals, or concerns about breaking the issue price?

First, the view: Brother Cai believes that before the deadline tomorrow, Chery's margin financing will pick up, conservatively estimating at least 400x oversubscription. This 400x is already considered hot, roughly equivalent to the ~2000x public oversubscription of Jingfang Pharmaceutical-B.

Brother Cai thinks Chery's current margin financing isn't high enough due to the following factors:

①As it's currently the weekend, the registration system updates in Hong Kong won't be timely. This "weekend phenomenon" is well-known among veterans.

②Many are worried that the super typhoon will cause Chery to clash with Zijin Gold$ZIJIN GOLD INTL(02259.HK) and Xipuni$HIPINE(02583.HK), so they're still 观望。

③Chery's fundraising this time is huge. A public oversubscription of 100x is equivalent to several hundred times for other small-cap stocks, which is crucial.

Therefore, regarding point ①, the most accurate 倍数 will be officially updated tomorrow. For example，某辉's margin financing is currently ranked third, which is unrealistic. After the update tomorrow，某辉's margin financing will surge.

As for point ②，确实有人在观望中， so Brother Cai predicts the final public 冻结金额 will be slightly lower than that of Jingfang Pharmaceutical.

Calculating based on this logic:

Jingfang Pharmaceutical raised 167 million publicly，最终超购 2663 倍，公开冻资 4447 亿。

Brother Cai believes that under market 观望， conservatively, Chery Automobile's public 冻结金额 will be at least around 4000x.

Based on this 冻结金额， Chery Automobile's final public oversubscription will be around 420x.

With Chery Automobile oversubscribed by 420x under 常规分配：

Group A tail one-lot winning rate: 0.18%，稳中 2 手。

Group B head one-lot winning rate: 0.27%，稳中 5-6 手。

Under 常规分配， many will apply for Group A in Chery Automobile, so Group B head will 绝对秒杀 Group A.

Brother Cai's own strategy won't change due to the low market 倍数， maintaining the original 申购方案。

You can check Brother Cai's 申购方案 on the public account or the IPO private planet.

One more thing: Health 160 was not recommended by big Vs, allowing Brother Cai and the planet's partners in Group B to 稳中， thus earning back 20 years of 星球 F.

There's some 分歧 with Chery Automobile this time, so let's wait and see its final 上市表现。

2、Different Group$BUTONG GROUP(06090.HK) also announced its 抽签结果 on Friday afternoon.

Extremely competitive—only the top hammer could 稳中一手， while other tiers were all 抽签， consistent with Brother Cai's 预估的中签结果 on the IPO private planet.

Brother Cai's luck finally returned this time, winning 2 手 (previously often 高抽签率 but 吃瘪).

Different Group is definitely going to yield big gains. One lot costs over 7,000 HKD, and even a slight rise will earn more than other new stocks.

Analysis of Different Group's 暗盘策略 will be posted on the IPO private planet tomorrow.

Additionally, Brother Cai's side has already filled the 国配份额 for Zijin Gold International, so no further inquiries are needed. Let's collaborate on the next new stock.