$Circle(CRCL.US) According to Citi's forecast, the stablecoin market cap will reach $4 trillion by 2030, and CRCL's valuation is calculated based on this.

Currently, USDC accounts for about 25% of the total market cap, meaning USDC's market cap is expected to be around $1 trillion by 2030, assuming a neutral interest rate of 2.5% by the Fed.

Calculations show that reserve revenue could reach $25 billion annually, with Circle's cost ratio at around 60% (including COIN's share and depreciation expenses).

Circle retains 40%, resulting in an annual net profit of $10 billion. If the market is willing to assign a 25x P/E ratio, Circle's market cap would be estimated at $250 billion, over 8 times its current value—and this doesn’t even include other potential revenue streams.

Personally, I hope Circle can expand other revenue sources, such as gas fees from Arc or exploring new business income streams.