U.S. stock market review during National Day, summary of semiconductor, AI, data center, and storage stocks!
During the National Day holiday, I didn't have much time. I only managed to complete the analysis of three Hong Kong IPO stocks these days, and today I'll briefly review the U.S. stock market for this week.
Market Overview
Although U.S. stocks pulled back yesterday, the extent was limited, and new highs were hit at the opening. The S&P 500 saw a modest decline, while the Nasdaq was nearly flat. Tech stocks remain strong, and the U.S. market continues its upward trend this week, maintaining an overall optimistic sentiment.
Semiconductors This Week
OpenAI recently announced a collaboration with AMD$AMD(AMD.US) to deploy AMD chips with a combined computing power of 6GW. The total deployment over the next few years will reach 6GW, with the first batch of 1GW to be deployed in the second half of 2026.
AMD was the biggest winner this week. Earlier, when Intel hit new highs, I mentioned reducing INTC and increasing NVDA, AMD, and AVGO. Now, Nvidia has hit new highs, and AMD has also been highlighted, leaving only AVGO$Broadcom(AVGO.US) to announce its detailed AI outlook plan.
Besides the ASIC leader, the runner-up Marvell$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) is also worth allocating more to. Beyond its recent strong performance, it has considerable upside potential. After the negative sentiment from delayed Microsoft order guidance, the trend has turned positive, offering more upside. However, the latter two are less likely to enter OpenAI deals, which is also a limitation of ASIC.
The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security has issued an export license to Nvidia$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) under the terms of the bilateral AI agreement reached in May this year, approving the export of billions of dollars worth of chips to the United Arab Emirates.
Dazi has hit new highs twice recently, and overall sentiment has improved. If we're talking about news catalysts, AMD also signed a deal with the UAE back then, so similar positive news could benefit AMD.
Intel$Intel(INTC.US) on Thursday revealed key details about its upcoming Panther Lake notebook processor. This is the company's first chip based on the next-generation 18A process technology. Mass production is expected to ramp up this year, with the first chips shipping by the end of 2025 and full availability starting in January 2026.
The recent performance has been relatively stable, and I don't expect a significant pullback. Watch the 33/30 support levels; without catalysts, it's likely to oscillate in line with the broader market.
AI Data Centers This Week
AI data center company Applied Digital$Applied Digital(APLD.US) reported Q1 revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations, up 84% YoY to $64.2 million, above analysts' prior estimate of $50 million.
Microsoft$Microsoft(MSFT.US) expects the data center shortage to last longer than previously anticipated, with many U.S. data center regions facing physical space or server shortages.
Overall demand for data centers remains very strong.
Sources indicate that the SEC has focused its investigation on allegations that AppLovin$AppLovin(APP.US) violated platform partner service agreements. The company is accused of pushing more targeted ads to consumers through improper means. The SEC's enforcement division for cyber and emerging technologies is handling the matter.
Before this sharp rally, APP's overall sentiment was quite negative, often opening high and closing low. After stabilizing above MA60, it entered a bull run. Technically, 590/532 are key support levels, with 532 only tested once. For now, focus on 590. Fundamentally, the upcoming e-commerce expansion has strongly boosted market confidence and expectations. Unless a series of negative triggers emerge, the overall outlook remains bullish.
Industry analysts believe the memory chip market is experiencing another round of price increases, a trend expected to continue into Q2 2026. Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts a "super cycle" for the memory chip industry amid the AI boom.$Micron Tech(MU.US)
It's clear that memory stocks have started to diverge. Micron and SanDisk remain strong, while Seagate and Western Digital are pulling back. The sector as a whole is stabilizing, and after short-term digestion, the outlook remains bullish, both in the short and medium term.
Space & Aerospace
U.S. satellite communications company ASTS$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) has reached a commercial agreement with U.S. telecom operator VZ to provide space-based cellular and broadband services to its customers starting in 2026. ASTS rose nearly 30% this week.
Rocket launch provider RKLB announced another multi-launch agreement with Japan's Q-shu. Previously, iQPS booked four dedicated "Electron" launches, and the additional three missions will bring the total pending launches to seven.
Both are driven by space deals, lifting the entire sector. Some drone stocks also performed well. Going forward, expect more divergence in individual stock performance, with the strong getting stronger.
Fed This Week
Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believe further policy easing this year may be appropriate, though a few could have supported holding rates steady in September. One participant favored a 50-basis-point cut last month. Most emphasized upside risks to the inflation outlook and noted that while recent inflation remains elevated, it is expected to gradually return to target.
Fed Governor Barr said Thursday the central bank should be cautious about further rate cuts, leaning clearly toward inflation risks, though he acknowledged potential vulnerabilities in the "broadly balanced" labor market.
What to Watch Next
CPI Data: The release of the U.S. September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, was initially in doubt due to the government shutdown. Reports suggest the CPI could be released in time for the Fed's October 28-29 policy meeting, as the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has asked the Bureau of Labor Statistics to recall staff to ensure the data is compiled by month-end.
Inflation data remains crucial, with downside risks.
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