AI bubble coming?

On Friday, news of Trump's tax hikes and layoffs hit, and the U.S. stock market took a dive. In fact, this adjustment was expected, even long-awaited. After all, since the last tariff war, the market has been soaring for too long. Even giants like $AMD(AMD.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) started dancing, even with relatively mediocre earnings reports, relying on the cyclical investments of OpenAI and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), stepping on each other's toes to reach the sky.

Traditional internet companies, burdened with massive data centers, have become heavy-asset companies, truly experiencing the joy of manufacturing. But as $Meta Platforms(META.US)’s Zuckerberg said: Compared to the company being obsolete in the AI era, the money spent now is insignificant.

The ability to spend and having places to spend is itself an important indicator of a company's management. I remember when working on a project with BGI, the person in charge said: This project in my hands is worth tens of millions, you guys need to find ways to spend it, otherwise the leadership will think I lack planning ability, and I won’t get such big projects in the future. $Alibaba(BABA.US) surged after its Q1 earnings report, with many analysts commenting: Alibaba is spending again, which is good.

A management sitting on a gold mine but remaining obscure cannot give investors any imagination, hence no valuation space. I’m talking about you, $Apple(AAPL.US).

This year can be called the first year of AI infrastructure, revolving around $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Arista Networks(ANET.US) $AMD(AMD.US), the large-scale construction of data centers is in short supply, bringing strong demand. Those building AI may not be the ones laughing last, and could very well fall at the dawn of the AI era, as was evident during the internet bubble burst. Many companies collapsed, but it didn’t stop the arrival of the internet era.

So whether AI has a bubble or not, the AI era has arrived. I even believe that the ability to use AI well will become the new standard to distinguish literacy. Like writing, the internet, and smartphones, this is an epoch-making technology. When I used AI to complete the design, code generation, polishing, and journal selection for 2 SCI papers, I was convinced AI is the future. Through AI, you can quickly understand an industry, a knowledge point, and this interdisciplinary crossover and fusion will accelerate the flow of knowledge and the birth of innovation. Personal knowledge boundaries can expand infinitely, and in this era of increasingly specialized disciplines and reinforced knowledge silos, AI will become the cornerstone of Munger-style multidisciplinary thinking.

Just like the internet era, the AI era may see bubbles burst, many companies collapse, and the results of AI infrastructure may benefit future generations, but none of this will affect the basic logic—the AI era has arrived. So, just buy and hold.

Finally, I’d like to end with a quote I saw. Back then, $Tesla(TSLA.US) had gone through several rounds of crashes, falling below $300. A video showed a Tesla passing a truck carrying SpaceX. The comment in the video said: What we’re buying isn’t stocks, but call options on human life.

Today, holding the greatest tech companies of humanity, what we’re buying isn’t stocks, but call options on human life.