Has the upward cycle of gold ended?

👉🏻A century-long review of gold prices:

• 1915-1970: Officially anchored currency, stable prices.
• 1970s: Extraordinary bull market. In 1971, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, shifting to free-floating pricing; the first oil crisis in 1973-1974 led the economy into "stagflation"; the second oil crisis began in 1978, plunging the U.S. into severe "stagflation"; this created an extraordinary gold bull market, with prices rising 23-fold.
• 1980-2000: Two decades of decline. The "Volcker Moment" saw the Fed aggressively raise interest rates, strengthening the dollar; the gold supply-side revolution in the 1980s led to a surge in production; global central banks significantly reduced gold holdings in the 1990s; the internet revolution of the 1990s shifted market preferences toward tech stocks; gold endured a 20-year bear market, cumulatively falling 70%.
• 2001-2011: A decade-long bull market. The dot-com bubble burst, and the Fed cut rates; events like 9/11 boosted safe-haven demand; gold ETFs emerged and grew rapidly; China's rapid development drove demand; the 2007-2009 subprime crisis led to massive Fed rate cuts and QE; the 2010-2011 European debt crisis fueled gold's final surge; gold rose 650% cumulatively.
• 2011-2015: Four years of consolidation. The European debt crisis eased, and growth recovered in Europe and the U.S., reducing safe-haven demand; the U.S. gradually exited QE starting in 2013, and the dollar surged in 2014-2015; the U.S. shale revolution caused oil prices to crash, drastically lowering inflation pressure; gold ETF outflows were heavy; gold fell 44% cumulatively.
• 2016-2020: A new gold bull market. The U.S. imposed tariffs; the Fed began cutting rates in 2019; the 2020 COVID outbreak led to massive fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policies in the West; gold rose 96% over five years.
• Q4 2022–present: Further surge. "De-dollarization" accelerated, with global central banks increasing gold purchases; concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and monetary policy independence intensified; Middle East tensions persisted; the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs globally; the Fed resumed rate cuts; gold broke $3,700, rising 128% cumulatively.

👀Thus, gold has historically experienced two super bull markets: the 10-year, 20-fold surge in the 1970s and the 10-year, 6-fold rally starting in 2001. In 1979, gold even posted a single-year gain of 120.57%.

Gold's uptrends are long (10 years) and powerful (6-10x), with highly consistent bullish logic: currency depreciation/inflation, fiscal deficits, geopolitical crises, monetary system shifts, rate cuts, etc. During major uptrends, the 20-week moving average acts as strong support.

The only argument for a recent pullback or bearishness is that gold has risen too much—already up over 60% this year—and no asset rises indefinitely without corrections.

This year's gold rally, beyond the two prior major-cycle drivers, also reflects sustained central bank buying, led by China, Brazil, and Indonesia. In September, 146 tons were purchased, with China's central bank adding to reserves for 11 straight months. Its gold reserves now stand at 2,300 tons, ~6.7% of forex reserves (supporting yuan internationalization). Central banks are currently buying aggressively at record levels, ignoring prices, while geopolitical risks evolve. This gold rally, since 2016, has only doubled, and with the Fed just starting its rate-cut cycle, gold may still be in a bullish greenhouse" environment.

U.S. national debt now exceeds $35 trillion, ~120% of GDP—far larger than during the two prior gold rallies. As long as political and monetary uncertainty accumulates, gold's price drivers will remain intact.

Believing in stocks is trust in the future; believing in gold is distrust of the future.

Stocks are fundamentally about "creation," built on the complex compounding mechanism of discounting future cash flows from countless companies. Gold is fundamentally about "chaos," reflecting distrust in future global order, systems, and money.

When will gold enter a downtrend? When the Fed hikes rates, the U.S./China/Russia/Europe/Japan enter a honeymoon phase, and central banks sell gold.

✍🏻So, beyond AI and crypto, gold may also be highly worth watching over the next 3-5 years—a way to defend while attacking.

Now, the key question: How to invest in gold?

1. Physical ETFs:

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) (largest)$iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) $Veck Merk GLD(OUNZ.US)

2. Miner ETFs:

$VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US)$VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ.US)

3. Leveraged physical products:

$Pro Ultr GLD(UGL.US) $DB Gold Double Long ETN(DGP.US)

4. Individual miner stocks:

$Newmont(NEM.US) (large-cap leader)$Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM.US) $Gold.com(GOLD.US) $Kinross Gold(KGC.US) (Seeking α's gold pick)

5. Gold royalty companies:

$Wheaton Precious(WPM.US) (largest)

$Royal Gold(RGLD.US)

$Osisko Gold Royalties(OR.US)

6. Leveraged miner products:

$Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X(NUGT.US) $Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 2X(JNUG.US) $Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US)