The pendulum of the market and the practice of investors

The turbulent financial market is like a giant pendulum that never stops. It constantly swings between two extremes—from greed to fear, from euphoria to despair. Yet, despite all the changes, beneath this seemingly chaotic surface lies a simple yet most easily forgotten truth: In this world, there has never been a product that only falls or only rises.

I. The Fate of Cycles: No Eternal Straight Line

Whether it's the stocks of blue-chip giants, the grand commodities, or the intricate options and indices, their price trajectories are never a straight line charging forward but a winding curve with alternating peaks and valleys.

The driving force behind this is cycles. The macroeconomy has its ups and downs, industries have their booms and busts, market sentiment swings like a pendulum, and corporate operations fluctuate. It is the resonance and divergence of these forces that weave the eternal volatility of the market. To regard a temporary rise as eternal or to judge a brief decline as the end is the deepest misunderstanding of market laws. Recognizing the inevitability of cycles is the first lesson in understanding the market. It tells us that after the peak may come a cliff, and at the bottom of the abyss, new paths often emerge.

II. The Scale of Time: Telescope and Microscope

How you view the market depends on the tool you hold—a telescope gazing into the distance or a microscope examining the minute.

Let's look at the trendsetters of the era: BTC,$Tesla(TSLA.US) ,$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) . If we stretch the timeline to a decade, their price charts resemble steep cliffs, with gains that could be called astonishing. Behind this are paradigm shifts in digital currencies, industrial revolutions in electric vehicles, and the computing power surge of artificial intelligence. Those holding a telescope see trends, waves, and the compound growth of value.

However, if we zoom in on a specific short-term period—days, weeks, or months—the scene changes dramatically. It becomes a rugged path full of jagged edges, with "plunges" and deep corrections of tens of percent. At this point, the market is dominated by news, sentiment, and capital games. Those holding a microscope capture volatility, noise, and the fleeting changes of sentiment.

The fallacy of investing often stems from mismatched tools. Intending to be a friend of time, one panics and exits due to short-term turbulence; aiming for lightning-fast trades, one is forced into "long-term investing" due to temporary losses. Your time dimension determines your identity and fate.

III. The Path of Cultivation: Tempering the Mind Amid Volatility

Thus, we must admit that investing is far more than a game of knowledge—it is a long cultivation. This cultivation does not take place in remote mountain temples but in the fluctuations of every account and the tests of every decision.

• Cultivate awareness, clarify boundaries. We need to establish our own investment philosophy, clearly understanding what is within our circle of competence, what is luck, and what is inevitable. Remain humble before the market and earn money you understand.
• Cultivate patience, await the bloom. This is a covenant with time. True value requires years to ferment, like fine wine. Enduring necessary drawdowns and solitude is the price one must pay for substantial returns. The saying "holding stocks is like widowhood" tests precisely this mountain-like resolve.
• Cultivate temperament, conquer greed. This is a battle against human weakness. One must fear when others are greedy and seize opportunities when others are fearful. Overcome the instinct of "linear extrapolation," neither becoming complacent with surges nor disheartened by plunges.
• Cultivate discipline, unify knowledge and action. The most perfect strategy, without ironclad discipline in execution, is merely theoretical. Profit-taking, stop-losses, and asset allocation must become internalized habits to navigate bull and bear markets without being enslaved by market sentiment.

Epilogue: The Foresight of the Few

Yet, the cruelty of the market lies in the fact that most participants are not prepared for this cultivation. They are swayed by short-term fluctuations, chasing every trend, lost in an ocean of information, ultimately becoming the silent majority in the "seven lose, two break even, one profit" rule. What they lack is not intelligence but the foresight to pierce through the fog and the patience and resolve to "take only one scoop from three thousand gallons of water."

As Charlie Munger said, "If I can know where I will die, then I will never go there." The secret to successful investing may not lie in making brilliant moves but in successfully avoiding the obvious mistakes.

Amid the pendulum swings, may we all become patient sentinels, using telescopes to see the path ahead and microscopes to scrutinize risks, ultimately arriving at inner peace and abundance in this cultivation called "investing."