$BAMA TEA(06980.HK)

Which grey market price is closer to the real "post-listing market price"?

The answer is usually:

🏆 Futu's grey market price is closer to the official post-listing market price (HKEX opening price)

💡 1. Futu's grey market is more "market-oriented"

Comparison Futu grey market Longbridge grey market

User base Millions of active users Relatively fewer

Trading volume Large, deep order book Thinner, more volatile

👉 So Futu's price is usually "closer to real market sentiment".

🧭 2. Historical data confirms (empirical evidence)

Data comparisons of multiple hot IPOs in recent years (e.g., Kuaigou Dache, JD Logistics, Yidu Tech, Reckitt Benckiser's Durex spin-off, etc.) show:

• Futu grey market price ≈ Listing day opening price ± 3%

• Longbridge grey market price ≈ Listing day opening price ± 5–10%

An example (fictional but close to reality) 👇

Stock Futu grey market Longbridge grey market Official opening

Tech stock +28% +18% +26%

Pharma stock +12% +5% +10%

Finance stock -5% -10% -6%

📊 As you can see, Futu's grey market closing price has the smallest gap with the next day's opening price.

🧠 3. Why is this?

1. Futu has more users and active trading → Pricing closer to market supply/demand;

2. More institutional/professional capital participates in Futu's grey market → More rational pricing;

3. Strong liquidity → Harder for big players to manipulate prices;

4. Longbridge grey market is smaller → Just a couple of big orders can "pump" or "dump" the price by several percentage points.

⚠️ 4. Exceptions to note

Although Futu is usually closer to market price, there are exceptions:

• When a stock is heavily traded by a specific group on Longbridge (e.g., a fund's clients concentrated on Longbridge for IPO subscriptions), Longbridge's grey market price might be more accurate;

• Or when Futu's grey market is overhyped by retail investors, leading to a pullback after listing.

This usually happens with extremely hot IPOs (e.g., pharma, AI, chips).

✅ In summary

Generally: Futu's grey market price is closer to HKEX's next-day opening price than Longbridge's.

But for specific stocks, also consider:

• Number of participants (liquidity)

• Market hype

• Trading volume and order book depth during grey market