Gemini's liquidity forecast for Monday's MSCI China Index inclusion of XtalTech:
According to calculations by authoritative institutions such as CICC and historical data on MSCI index adjustments, the estimated scale of passive fund buying for ** XtalPi (02228.HK) ** in tomorrow's (November 24, Monday) closing session is roughly as follows:
Key Data: Estimated Buying Amount
Approximately $120 million (equivalent to HK$930 million)
Data Source: Based on CICC's semi-annual MSCI China Index adjustment forecast report.
Calculation Logic: XtalPi has been included in the MSCI China Index this time, with a predicted weight of approximately 0.08% - 0.09%. Based on the total size of passive funds tracking this index (including global ETFs and passive index funds), this weight corresponds to a mandatory allocation of approximately $120 million.
How Significant Is This Amount? (Trading Perspective)
To give you a better sense, we can compare it with XtalPi's recent trading data:
Equivalent to One Full Day's Turnover:
XtalPi's average daily turnover has fluctuated significantly recently, ranging from HK$500 million to HK$1 billion during active periods and possibly as low as HK$100 million to HK$300 million during quiet periods.
This means that tomorrow, ** just in the last few minutes before the close (U-market session) ** and during the closing auction, the trading volume equivalent to one or even two full days will need to be completed.
Extreme Impact:
On a normal day, HK$930 million in buy orders spread over 5.5 hours might only lead to a moderate price increase.
But tomorrow, this money will be concentrated in the 16:00 - 16:10 window (especially the last few minutes of the closing auction) to enter the market.
Conclusion: If we disregard the potential selling pressure from pre-positioned profit-takers, this level of sudden buying force will typically cause the stock price to surge vertically in the closing session.
Tomorrow's Trading Scenario Projection
Based on this calculation, you might witness the following scenario tomorrow afternoon:
Before 15:55: Some funds may front-run, causing price fluctuations.
16:00 - 16:08 (Pre-Closing Auction): Trading volume begins to increase significantly.
16:08 - 16:10 (Random Closing Period/U-Market):
This is the most critical moment. Passive funds (ETFs) must buy at this time to avoid tracking errors, regardless of the price.
At this point, the trading volume bar will suddenly spike to an "extreme volume" (possibly tens of millions of shares).
Risk Warning: This is also when "veterans" and "quant funds" offload their positions. Knowing that HK$930 million must be bought, they will have already placed high-priced sell orders waiting for passive funds to "take the bait."
Summary: Tomorrow's closing session will see approximately HK$930 million of "mandatory" buy orders entering the market. For holders, this is the moment of best liquidity; for short-term traders, the extreme volatility (either a sharp rally or a pullback after the surge) presents both huge opportunities and risks.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
