A value speculation

First of all, I need to clarify that I am far from what one might call "successful," let alone qualified to share any experience. Writing these words is merely a periodic review of my investment journey over the past few years. Since everyone enjoys hearing stories, I thought my somewhat surreal experience might provide some after-dinner conversation.

Let me explain my ID, "今日も阮愛妻です." I’m someone who believes in metaphysics, and I’ve always felt that my financial luck ultimately stems from my wife. We met in 2020 while studying in Japan. Before that, I was just an ordinary student living off my parents' allowance, chasing highs and lows in the A-share market, experiencing two asset halvings. At the time, she was just my girlfriend, completely clueless about finance, but she trusted me, thinking I was "very knowledgeable" about financial management, and handed me 30,000 RMB to manage.

Unsurprisingly, the unexpected still happened. That was my third halving in the A-share market, and I remember it vividly—frequent position changes, ultimately resulting in a complete asset halving in T+0 convertible bonds. At that moment, it truly felt like the sky had fallen. Losing my own money was a lesson, but betraying my girlfriend’s trust made me feel awful. To recoup my losses quickly, I was introduced to the world of cryptocurrency, lured by stories of turning 10,000 RMB into 200,000 RMB. But I ran headfirst into "519," and my 10,000 RMB trial funds were "heel-chopped" down to 2,000 RMB in a single day.

But perhaps it was a case of hitting rock bottom before rebounding—after that, luck inexplicably started favoring me. I met friends in the circle, built communities, and invested in on-chain primary markets. That initial 100,000 RMB capital, within just three months, soared to 10 million RMB as the coins listed on secondary exchanges. At my peak, I was young and brash, thinking I was the chosen one, and that 10 million RMB was just the beginning of my class leap. It wasn’t until my account shrank back to 1 million RMB that I woke up and hastily took profits. Later, that token, like most altcoins, went to zero.

The story brings us to 2024, with the ecosystem of Bitcoin exploding. After years of experience, I had more capital than before, and riding this wave, I once again luckily turned 300,000 RMB into 10 million RMB. It was the familiar 10 million RMB, and I naively thought this time I could break the curse and make up for the regrets of years past. But the capital market is always cruel and fair—my account shrank back to 3 million RMB. The only difference was that this time, I was more rational. Because by then, my girlfriend and I had married, and we had a newborn daughter. With a family, money became more important. As the speculative trend faded, I stopped fantasizing and decisively exited with that 3 million RMB.

That’s my entire story in the crypto world. To avoid sitting idle and to keep rolling, I shifted to U.S. stocks. I’m still pursuing my Ph.D., focusing on deep learning, which gives me a slightly deeper understanding of AI development than most. I realized early on the moat of Tesla’s pure vision FSD and the enormous potential of the robotics market. So, when Tesla was around 180, without studying any valuation system, I went all-in with most of my cash. Luck was on my side—Elon Musk bet correctly on the U.S. election, and Tesla hit a high of 488. My net worth touched the 10 million RMB threshold for the third time.

The subsequent script is something everyone probably knows well. As the market receded, Tesla began squeezing bubbles, halving all the way. During this time, I even aggressively switched to some TSLL, further exacerbating the drawdown. This rollercoaster made me reflect: What kind of investment system should retail investors establish in the U.S. stock market? After much thought, I identified a few key terms: information asymmetry, policy insensitivity, new paradigms, and small caps.

Following this line of thinking, I tracked many high-quality bloggers and conducted extensive research using AI tools, eventually discovering LMND. After observing a few earnings reports that exceeded expectations, I decided to shift my position from Tesla to LMND. Even after all this, I remain aggressive. Compared to friends who’ve been trading U.S. stocks long-term, I like to use "all-in" to represent my judgment. But compared to gamblers in the crypto world, I’ve become much more conservative, now paying attention to earnings reports and logic. This is my story—to be continued. I hope this time, I can gradually refine my system and no longer just be the passerby trapped by the 10 million RMB curse. $Lemonade(LMND.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Circle(CRCL.US) $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US)