BMNR extreme value derivation 12.02
The rebound trend in cryptocurrency was interrupted by the macro change of Japan's interest rate hike on Monday, and ETH has returned to the 2.8k level. Crypto sentiment has been very low over the past period, with MSTR at the center of attention due to institutional shorting + index exclusion risks, as well as some comments positioning MSTR as the focal point of the battle for discourse power between old and new financial forces. I still highly appreciate MSTR's innovation. As a pioneer of the DAT model, MSTR has also pioneered a financing model of "selling bonds to hoard coins, selling stocks to repay debts." However, due to debt issues, as long as BTC doesn't rise, even if it remains flat, the debt interest will erode MSTR's value, similar to a BTC long call.
BMNR, on the other hand, is committed to maintaining a clean balance sheet. Without debt, there is no erosion. Even if it falls below the premium, it is equivalent to the ETF with the largest coin hoarding volume, and its scale of 3.7 million has also surpassed BlackRock's ETHA. Therefore, I judge that even if BMNR's mNAV falls below 1, it will quickly rebound, just like when ETH fell below 2.6k two weeks ago. The impact on sentiment caused BMNR to quickly fall to 26, with mNAV hitting a low of 0.93, but it soon rebounded to around 1.05. Next, we will continue to track mNAV to perform extreme value projections until the next coin hoarding progress update on 12.10.
Core assumption: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin hoarding progress, holding 3.72 million coins, with an increase of 97,000 last week. mNAV returned to 1.04, and cash on hand continued to grow to 880 million. It's worth noting that there were only 3.5 trading days last week, but BMNR was still able to accelerate coin hoarding while increasing cash on sale, all thanks to BMNR's liquidity recovery. The current average trading volume is 1.8 billion, returning to the average level of October.
Stock volatility is the source of liquidity. MSTR announced the establishment of a 1.4 billion reserve yesterday, and this 1.4 billion USD was raised through ATM financing in just 8 days (4.6% of trading volume). Currently, BMNR and MSTR together account for 92% of the trading volume of all DAT companies, up from 88% in October, indicating higher market concentration during a sluggish market. Tomorrow, ETH will undergo a major upgrade, which is a substantial improvement to ETH's fundamentals. There will also be a rate cut on 12.10, so I remain optimistic about the market outlook for December.
Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.2k, mNAV will rise to 1.1, corresponding to a stock price of 35; if ETH falls to 2.6k, mNAV will fall below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 25.5. The conclusion is that the extreme range is 25.5～35.
Not investment advice.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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