In the future, the acceleration of electrification in consumer electronics may be driven by new hit products, and the base sales will be significantly affected by these hits, leading to a decrease in volume.
$NIO(NIO.US)
Almost there, the fundamentals are not that bad, it's just the recent market, especially the new energy vehicle sector, has fallen too sharply.
The market's impact has amplified the negative performance.
The issue with November's data lies in Nio's core model 5566 not selling well, and the L90 deliveries were a big disappointment.
Nio has always had this problem: once a hit model emerges, everyone focuses on selling it, and the core models often get neglected.
5566 deliveries dropped from 11,600 in September, 9,946 in October, to 7,700 in November, a three-month consecutive decline that can't be stopped.
L90 deliveries in November were halved, allegedly due to subsidy cuts, with some orders shifting to the ES8.
The wait-and-see sentiment is quite strong now. The reason is barely acceptable, but how is a 50% drop justified? Just throwing hands up.
Makes you wonder if there are any orders left. You decide.
From November till now, there's no sign of a rebound. Imagine how bad the sentiment is.
Let's see December deliveries.
Total deliveries for September and October were 76,672, so December needs 43,328 to meet guidance.
Nio has enough incentive to deliver the ES8—each additional unit saves 15,000 yuan. Based on the VINs, production capacity looks good. Today, they said 26,800+ were produced overnight, estimating 18,000, which should be enough to hit 40,000 deliveries for Q4, which is decent.
Year-end now, let's aim for 8,000 for the core 5566 models. If even that can't be done, it's time to cut losses.
L60 and Firefly can maintain 6,000, no big issue—these two are stable.
So, if L90 delivers just 7,000 this month, it can reach 45,000, which isn't a high bar for the L90.
But strangely, the current promotional efforts are minimal. Not sure if they have orders in hand or what, but they don't seem in a hurry.
That's about it. This month's delivery estimate: 43,300–45,000; Q4 estimate: 120,000–121,600.
If achieved, it's still pretty good. The price won't be the same by then.
Buddy, think back to March and April when Nio was at $3–$4—that was ICU territory.
Now? Definitely not KTV, but at least sitting in the office with the heater on.
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