Likes ReceivedPinduoduo denied the relevant data and information
LatePost published an article about Pinduoduo today, with a lot of data, which was very satisfying to read.
But at the end, there was a very humorous line: "Pinduoduo denied the business data and information mentioned in the article," representing the official stance of "ask me, no comment, I'm just a black box, feel free to guess."
Even so, these data of unknown origin are still very valuable and worth sharing.
1. LatePost estimates Pinduoduo's Q3 GMV growth to be between 15%-20%. By 2025, the domestic e-commerce GMV (order-based) is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, while TEMU is expected to reach $90 billion, totaling around 6.6 trillion yuan.
2. Pinduoduo's final settlement-based GMV is about 60% of the order-based GMV, 10% higher than Douyin E-commerce, while Alibaba and JD.com are around 70%-80%. Douyin's low figure is unsurprising, as live-streaming e-commerce often leads to impulsive orders and returns. Pinduoduo's lower rate is largely attributed to its crackdown on scalpers and proactive order cancellations.
3. Currently, branded products contribute about 40% of GMV, and the presence of branded products on Pinduoduo is indeed becoming more noticeable.
4. Since this year, GMV is no longer the primary goal for Pinduoduo's main platform. Multiple categories have shifted focus to attracting more users to shop on Pinduoduo and increasing order frequency per user.
Previously, repurchase rate was the North Star metric. I was disappointed to hear that Pinduoduo considered making GMV the top metric. While it's unclear whether they actually changed it or what the current status is, this is good news.
5. In the first 11 months, Duoduo Maicai's GMV approached 300 billion yuan, already exceeding the combined total of Duoduo Maicai and Meituan Youxuan from the previous year. With Meituan Youxuan shutting down, Duoduo Maicai also paused its ongoing experiments (instant retail) to capitalize on the market share vacated by Meituan.
This is truly a case of "food delivery wars" raging inside the Fifth Ring Road, while Pinduoduo "makes a fortune quietly" outside the Fifth Ring—a world of contrasts.
6. In the coming years, Duoduo Maicai is expected to grow by 20%-30%, with a future market potential of 500 billion yuan and profits of around 10 billion yuan.
In my opinion, community group buying isn't about making money but about the social value and securing a "core base" to build an unbreakable "moat." Pinduoduo could easily make 10 billion yuan from a lending business—this money is hardly worth their attention.
7. Duoduo Post is expanding rapidly, currently numbering 120,000 to 150,000, second only to Cainiao's 180,000 (who knew Duoduo Post had so many?).
8. Temu is expected to turn profitable in some European countries in Q4 this year, across Europe in Q1 next year, and in the U.S. in the first half of next year.
Above all, I recommend reading the original article. Thanks to LatePost for their hard work.
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