【Zhenzhuo Institutional View】US employment data diverges, Fed turns dovish, Stock Connect net inflow of 1.5 billion on Thursday

U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low overnight, creating a stark "data divergence" with the earlier weak ADP employment report and record corporate layoffs, leaving the market divided over the judgment of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. However, the interest rate futures market is betting more aggressively that the Fed will ignore the data noise and implement rate cuts, a counterintuitive phenomenon that highlights a key shift in the current macro logic: investors believe the Fed's policy reaction function has shifted from pure "data dependence" to "preemptive easing," meaning policymakers are more inclined to proactively cut rates to hedge against potential economic slowdown risks.

Southbound Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.5 billion on Thursday, with $TRACKER FUND(02800.HK) recording the largest net inflow of HKD 2.61 billion, followed by WuXi Biologics (02269.HK). On the other hand, $TENCENT(00700.HK) recorded the largest net outflow of HKD 1.35 billion, followed by SMIC (00981.HK).

Source: KGI Securities