RXRX 一周展望，By Grok

$Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.（RXRX）Weekly Report (2025.11.22-11.29)

How much you can achieve can largely be seen from how much pain you can endure. Keep it up!

Report Date: November 29, 2025 Perspective: Long-term value investor (focusing on platform moat, clinical execution, cash runway, partner validation, and structural opportunities in AI drug discovery) Current Stock Price: ~$4.3-$4.5 (flat for the week, slightly up 0.9%-1.5%, medium-high trading volume of ~16-20M shares/day) Market Cap: ~$2.0-2.2B Cash Position (Latest Known): ~$785M as of October 2025 (post-Q3 earnings), runway until end of 2027 or longer (without additional financing)

I. Key Events This Week (Only 1 Event Between 11.22-11.29)

1. Nov 24-26: Issued 7.0887M shares to Tempus AI as annual data licensing fee payment, completed resale registration
   • This is one of the regular payment methods under Recursion's 5-year data partnership with Tempus AI (signed in 2023, up to $160M total).
   • Using shares instead of cash demonstrates Recursion's cash discipline (avoiding unnecessary burn) while making Tempus a larger shareholder to align interests.
   • Long-term positive: Tempus owns the world's largest multimodal oncology dataset (>20PB). Recursion essentially trades its shares for continued access—"low-cost acquisition of top-tier data moat"—directly strengthening Recursion OS's training data advantage in oncology.
   • Market reaction muted (no significant stock movement), indicating investors had priced in such equity payments.

No Other Major News This Week: No new clinical data, milestone payments, or big pharma partnership announcements. The last major event remains the Nov 5 Q3 earnings and CEO transition announcement.

II. Latest Corporate Narrative (Key Long-Term Investor Concerns)

1. Leadership Transition Enters Execution Phase (Most Underrated Catalyst)
   • Najat Khan (ex-J&J R&D lead) will officially become CEO in early 2026.
   • Recent coverage (STAT News, Seeking Alpha, etc.) highlights her execution style: "ambition + discipline," rapid go/no-go decisions, cost control (reduced 2025 cash burn guidance from $606M to ≤$450M, -35%), focusing only on "winnable areas."
   • Long-term investors value her big pharma background to shift Recursion from "cool tech but slow execution" to "industrialized, clinical-outcome-driven"—the core pain point behind its 3-year stock slump.
2. Platform Validation Continues ($500M+ Milestones Banked)
   • Roche/Genentech's $30M payment on Nov 5 (microglia whole-genome phenomap) brought Recursion's total upfront + milestone payments from partners to >$500M ($213M Roche, $130M Sanofi, others from Bayer/Merck).
   • This isn't "selling data" but "repeated platform validation by big pharma." Each map proves Recursion's wet-lab + AI loop outperforms traditional CROs.
3. Clinical Pipeline Progress (2025-2026 Is the Real Inflection Window)
   • REC-4881 (MEK inhibitor, FAP): Phase 2 TUPELO topline data expected Dec 2025.
   • REC-617 (CDK7 inhibitor, solid tumors): Phase 1/2 MTD established, early antitumor signals positive.
   • Multiple other programs (e.g., REC-1245 RBM39 degrader) have key readouts in 2026.
   • Long-term view: Recursion isn't a single-product play but a "platform approach." Just 1-2 successful programs could trigger massive re-rating (like early CRISPR companies).

III. Market Sentiment (X Platform Voices)

• Retail investor sentiment: Sharply divided
  • Bulls (majority): Call $4.x "generational undervaluation," citing "Nvidia investment + BioHive-2 supercomputer," "65PB+ data scale," "Najat Khan's upcoming leadership," and "Genesis Mission (Trump's AI science EO) structurally benefiting AI+Science."
  • Bears: Criticize "cash-burning machine," "Cathie Wood's huge paper loss," "biology complexity underestimated—AI far from revolutionizing drug discovery."
• Overall: Long-term bulls significantly outnumber short-term bears; many see $4.x as the "last window to board."

IV. Institutional Moves & Views

• No new 13F or major position changes reported last week (13Fs are quarterly).
• Key holders: ARK (Cathie Wood, ~$15+ avg cost, deeply underwater but no clear selling), Nvidia ($50M 2023 strategic investment, no divestment).
• Analyst takes (Nov 18-25):
  • Seeking Alpha: Puzzled by post-Q3 20% drop, calls new CEO + milestones + cost control severely undervalued.
  • Motley Fool (Nov 24): Names Recursion a "potential next AI megastock" given validation by Bayer/Sanofi/Roche/Merck/Nvidia.

V. Long-Term Investment Thesis (2025.11.29 → 3-5 Years)

Core thesis isn't weakening—it's strengthening:

1. Platform has moved from "proof-of-concept" to "repeated paid validation by big pharma" (>$500M cumulative hard revenue).
2. New CEO likely solves historical execution issues.
3. Cash runway to end-2027, no major financing needed before 2026 (unless aggressive expansion).
4. Multiple clinical readouts in 2025-2026; any success could trigger 10x+ revaluation.
5. Current ~$2B market cap << cash + data assets + pipeline value → extremely high margin of safety.

Risks:

• Biology is complex; clinical failure rates remain high.
• Stock may keep bleeding if no Phase 2 positive data by 2026.
• Dilution risk persists (though significantly reduced).

Personal Conclusion (Long-Term Investor View): At $4.x, Recursion is one of the "best risk-reward" assets in AI+Biotech. It has passed the hardest "technical feasibility validation" phase—execution is key. Najat Khan's leadership + cost discipline + 2026 clinical catalysts form a powerful combo. Holding for 3-5 years will likely outperform most tech or traditional pharma plays.

Allocation: Core-satellite (5-15%), accumulate below $4. This is my calmest and most bullish RXRX take.