Today, I revisited

the 2000 tech bubble,

the 2008 financial crisis,

and the 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis...

and found an interesting commonality:

Before the crisis erupts: Federal Reserve officials, institutional investment banks, rating agencies, and financial institutions all downplay the risks, saying, "Everything is under control!"

After the crisis erupts: They all collectively admit mistakes and shift blame, pointing fingers at each other!

(Current situation

Key U.S. personal and auto loan data

1. Key personal financial data: Q2 2025 data from the New York Fed shows that total U.S. household debt has risen to $18.39 trillion. Credit card balances reached $1.21 trillion, student loan balances $1.64 trillion, and auto-related debt exceeded $1.66 trillion. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates have risen for six consecutive quarters, and food bank demand grew by 18% in Q3, reflecting the sharp increase in financial pressure on low- and middle-income groups.

2. Core auto loan data: Auto loan default rates continue to hit record highs. Fitch data shows that in October 2025, the 60+ day delinquency rate for subprime borrowers surged to 6.65%, far exceeding the 5.04% peak during the financial crisis. Other data is equally grim: "deep subprime" borrowers (credit scores 300–500) face average new car loan rates of 16% and used car rates of 21.6%. The number of repossessed vehicles in 2025 due to missed payments is expected to far exceed 2024's 1.73 million, with over 28% of trade-ins in Q3 having negative equity.)