🇭🇰Hong Kong's first crypto asset stock HashKey is here

HashKey Holdings (hereinafter referred to as "HashKey") $HASHKEY HLDGS(03887.HK) is expected to be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 17, 2025 (this Wednesday). As Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and a strong contender for the title of "Hong Kong's first crypto stock," the market is paying close attention to its post-listing performance.

Based on current market sentiment, financial data, and industry conditions, here is a comprehensive forecast for HashKey's listing performance:

📈 Core Performance Forecast: Short-term stability with potential growth, long-term depends on market cycles

Overall, the probability of HashKey breaking its issue price on the first day of listing or in the short term is low. Its performance may exhibit the characteristics of "short-term following Hong Kong stock sentiment, medium-term following Bitcoin cycles."

Short-term performance (listing day - 1 month): Likely "stable"

Cornerstone investor support: HashKey has introduced nine heavyweight cornerstone investors, including UBS Asset Management (UBS AM), Fidelity, and CDH Investments, with a total subscription of approximately HKD 590 million and a six-month lock-up period. This provides solid bottom support for the stock price and reduces selling pressure.
Compliance scarcity premium: As Hong Kong's most compliant and largest licensed exchange (with over 75% market share), it is seen as a "barometer" of Hong Kong's Web3 policies. In the Hong Kong IPO market, tech stocks with this "industry benchmark" attribute are usually favored by capital.
High IPO subscription heat: According to current margin financing data, the oversubscription multiple is expected to be high, which usually indicates a certain profit effect on the first day of listing, with the stock price potentially rising moderately.

Medium- to long-term performance: Depends on "dual drivers"
HashKey's future stock performance will no longer depend solely on its own performance but will be dominated by the following two external factors:

Cryptocurrency market cycles (Beta): As an exchange, its performance is highly positively correlated with the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). If the crypto market enters a bull cycle in 2026, HashKey's trading volume and staking business revenue will surge, and its stock price is expected to significantly outperform the market.
Overall liquidity of Hong Kong stock market (Alpha): Although HashKey's business is crypto-related, its listing location is Hong Kong. If the overall liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market is sufficient and regulators continue to release favorable policies for the virtual asset sector, it will gain a valuation premium.

📊 Key Data Overview

To give you a more intuitive understanding of this IPO, I have compiled a table of core data:
Item Content
Stock Code$HASHKEY HLDGS(3887.HK)
Expected Listing Date December 17, 2025
Issue Price Range HKD 5.95 - HKD 6.95
Board Lot 400 shares
Minimum Subscription Fee (estimated) Approximately HKD 2,808
Cornerstone Investors UBS, Fidelity, CDH, etc.
Sponsors J.P. Morgan, Guotai Junan International

⚠️ Potential Risks and Challenges

Although the outlook is positive, I must remind you of the following risk factors that may limit the explosive potential of its stock price:

Pressure from continuous losses:
HashKey is still in a loss-making state. Although the loss narrowed in the first half of 2025, the cumulative losses over the past few years have been significant. This is mainly due to extremely high compliance costs (e.g., cold wallet maintenance, license upkeep) and high R&D investments to capture market share. The market may take a wait-and-see attitude toward when it can achieve stable profitability.

Competition due to limited trading pairs:
Compared to global exchanges like Binance and OKX, HashKey has fewer tradable cryptocurrencies for retail users (limited to mainstream coins like BTC and ETH) to comply with regulations. This somewhat limits the explosive growth of its trading volume, making it difficult to achieve high valuations like Coinbase in the short term.

Community trust crisis:
Recent reports indicate that the poor performance of HashKey's platform token, HSK, has dissatisfied some native Web3 users. Balancing "pleasing regulators" and "maintaining the native community" is a hidden concern for its long-term development.

💡 Summary and Recommendations

HashKey's listing is a milestone event for Hong Kong's financial market. For you:

If you are a short-term IPO investor: HashKey is a "high-probability win" stable new stock. Its first-day performance is unlikely to disappoint, but don't expect it to surge multiple times like some small-cap meme stocks.
If you are a medium- to long-term investor: HashKey is a ticket to "crypto bull market + Hong Kong Web3 policy dividends." As long as you are optimistic about the future recovery of the crypto market and Hong Kong's position in this field, it is a good investment target, but you need to endure the pain of early high investment losses.

Note: The above analysis is based on current market information. The stock market carries risks, and investment requires caution. It is recommended that you closely monitor the final pricing results on December 16.

Access to Virtual Asset Trading: $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788.HK), $Futu(FUTU.US), $FOSUN INTL(00656.HK)$CM BANK(03968.HK), $VICTORY SEC(08540.HK), etc.;

Stablecoin Issuance Applicants: Related to Round Dollar Technology ($ZA ONLINE(06060.HK), $GOFINTECH QUANT(00290.HK), $Z FIN(01168.HK), etc.), $JD-SW(09618.HK), $STANCHART(02888.HK), and other domestic state-owned applicants;

Hong Kong Virtual Asset Exchanges (VATP License Holders):$OSL GROUP(00863.HK), $HKE HOLDINGS(01726.HK)$LIANLIAN(02598.HK), $Futu(FUTU.US), $PUXING ENERGY(00090.HK)

Stablecoin Downstream Application Scenarios:$Qian Xun Technology(01640.HK), $YEAHKA(09923.HK), $GOLDSTREAM INV(01328.HK), $LIANLIAN(02598.HK)

RWA Related:$CRYPTO FLOW(08198.HK), $SENSETIME-W(00020.HK), $IVD MEDICAL(01931.HK), $FOURTH PARADIGM(06682.HK), $LINEKONG(08267.HK), $RUIFENG RENEW(00527.HK), $FOSUN INTL(00656.HK), $GOFINTECH QUANT(00290.HK), $SYNAGISTICS(02562.HK), $YUNFENG FIN(00376.HK), $DL HOLDINGS GP(01709.HK), $EASOU TECH(02550.HK), $VOBILE GROUP(03738.HK), $CMGE(00302.HK), $GCL TECH(03800.HK), $LINKLOGIS-W(09959.HK), $COOLPAD GROUP(02369.HK), $GREENLAND HK(00337.HK), $DMALL(02586.HK)

US-listed Stablecoin Issuers: $Circle(CRCL.US)

US-listed Trading Platforms and Ecosystem Partners: $Coinbase(COIN.US), $Robinhood(HOOD.US)

US-listed Traditional Financial Institutions in Stablecoin: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), $Bank of America(BAC.US), $Interactive Brokers(IBKR.US), $Citigroup(C.US)

US-listed Innovative Technology and Infrastructure Companies: $Mega Matrix(MPU.US)

US-listed Payment and Fintech Companies: $Paypal(PYPL.US), $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US), $Visa(V.US)