Collection: Four annual crash points, Xiaomi basically matched them.

portai
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.

The market usually has four relatively obvious crash nodes every year. Understanding the timing patterns and underlying logic of these nodes can help investors take preventive measures against risks in advance and increase the chances of profiting from stock trading. Here are the specific details of the four crash nodes:

  1. Late April: Annual Report "Bombing Wave" and Capital Risk Aversion
  • Time: Late April (especially around April 19, known as the "419 Curse").
  • Reasons: As the annual report disclosure period nears its end, companies with poor performance or financial issues face concentrated "bombs"; the approaching May Day holiday intensifies risk aversion sentiment, leading institutions and retail investors to reduce positions.
  • Performance: The ST sector declines significantly more than the broader market, with some stocks halving in value in the short term, and the market is prone to chain reactions of selling.
  1. Mid-to-late June: Liquidity Tightness and News Disturbances
  • Time: Mid-to-late June.
  • Reasons: Policies enter an observation period, and the market lacks new stimuli; banks conduct mid-term assessments, withdrawing liquidity and tightening market funding; rumors and hearsay proliferate, triggering panic selling.
  • Performance: Trading volume shrinks, market volatility amplifies, and rapid declines are likely.
  1. Late August: Market "Summer Dormancy" and Negative Amplification
  • Time: Late August.
  • Reasons: During the summer vacation, investors' willingness to trade declines, and trading volume drops sharply; policies are mostly in a preparatory phase, lacking major positive catalysts, leaving the market in a "sluggish" state where negative news is easily amplified due to low liquidity.
  • Performance: The market experiences minor fluctuations or downward adjustments, with overvalued and weak-performing stocks bearing the brunt.
  1. Mid-to-late December: Capital Withdrawal and Institutional Sell-offs
  • Time: Mid-to-late December.
  • Reasons: Financial institutions withdraw funds for year-end settlements, tightening market liquidity; mutual funds reduce positions to lock in rankings, private funds face redemption pressures, and hot money needs to realize floating profits for dividends and bonuses, leading to concentrated selling pressure.
  • Performance: Popular stocks face successive sell-offs by institutions, putting pressure on prices, with some stocks continuing to decline until around the Spring Festival.
  • $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) $SSE Index(000001.SH) 

The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.