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Posts[HK IPO] Nobi Kan Subscription Analysis: Third IPO, Really Short of Money!
Every mid-year and year-end, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) tends to see a phenomenon of clustered listings to boost performance, which is an unwritten convention.
Let’s first talk about $NUOBIKAN(02635.HK)
1. What does the company do?
Nobikkan is an AI company founded in March 2015, specializing in applying advanced AI and digital twin technologies to high-complexity open scenarios such as transportation, energy, and urban governance.
With its self-developed NBK-INTARI AI platform as the technical foundation, combined with edge computing, machine vision, precise positioning, and big data analytics, Nobikkan provides integrated hardware and software solutions for monitoring, inspection, and operations across industries.
According to industry reports, based on 2024 revenue, Nobikkan is the third-largest AI inspection and monitoring solution provider in China's rail transit sector and ranks second in the AI+power supply inspection system field. In December 2025, the company finally passed the HKEX hearing after its third attempt and plans to list on the Hong Kong Main Board.
Lately, I’ve been too busy, but in the current IPO subscription environment, sticking to technical analysis is still crucial—otherwise, losses are likely.
Without further ado, let’s jump straight into the exciting “Straight to the Point” section.
Brother Cai’s Straight to the Point:
1. Don’t be fooled by Nobikkan’s seemingly broad market—it’s actually awkward.
CIC Consulting reports show that in 2024, China’s AI+transportation, AI+energy, and AI+urban governance markets combined reached nearly 1.5 trillion yuan. However, in this vast landscape, Nobikkan is just a small player.
In the AI+rail transit inspection and monitoring sector, Nobikkan holds only 1.8% market share, while the industry leader holds just 4%. The highly fragmented market means there’s no true leader, and competition is exceptionally fierce.
More critically, Nobikkan’s technological moat is shallow. Its core AI+transportation business relies on AI models for rail transit inspection and early warning, requiring data “feeding” through simulated events—this is a low-tier AI application with limited scalability.
2. Performance-wise, it’s very mediocre. Are AI companies all about storytelling now?
In the first half of 2025, the company’s revenue grew to 232 million yuan, but net profit dropped to 40.08 million yuan, with gross margin plunging from 57.9% to 39.2%.
Nobikkan attributed this to “declining gross margins in energy solutions,” but this is just the surface.
Brother Cai believes the real issue is deteriorating business structure.
High-margin businesses (transportation solutions, 82.9% gross margin) shrank, while low-margin businesses (urban governance solutions, 20.6% gross margin) surged. In H1 2025, low-margin urban governance revenue skyrocketed to 57.3%, becoming the largest income source.
In other words, to scale up, Nobikkan had to take on more low-quality projects—a “drinking poison to quench thirst” growth model that’s unsustainable.
3. What shocked Brother Cai was the company’s financial health.
From 2022 to 2024, trade receivables ballooned from 176 million yuan to 474 million yuan, exceeding annual revenue. By H1 2025, receivables hit 475 million yuan, a staggering 205.6% of revenue.
Trade receivable turnover days stretched from 192 days in 2022 to 373 days in H1 2025, meaning repayment cycles exceed a year. Meanwhile, overdue receivables rose from 74.91 million yuan to 190 million yuan, with bad debt risks soaring.
Facing cash flow pressure, Nobikkan adopted a short-term strategy of slashing R&D.
In H1 2025, R&D spending fell 43% YoY, with R&D expense ratio dropping from 21.4% to 9.8%.
This “tightening belts for IPO” approach will undoubtedly harm long-term competitiveness.
4. With a sky-high 9x PS valuation—over twice as expensive as A-share peers—just by riding a low-moat AI wave, can valuations really go to the moon?
Nobikkan IPO Subscription Conclusion:
Based on the above, there’s little to shine—quality-wise, two stars at most.
Like neighboring Mingji Hospital, unless you have insider institutional info (mystery funds), it’s risky!
During the IPO rush, how capital allocates across targets is a judgment call based on individual circumstances. We advise rational analysis, independent decisions, and risk control.
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