Tesla's recent stock price hit a new high, with the core issue being a severe disconnect between "AI narrative" and "automotive reality." The market is paying a premium for its AI and robotics future while closely watching the race between the two.

🚀 Reason for the surge: Milestone catalyst in AI narrative

The direct driver of the surge is key progress in AI business. The most important catalyst is the launch of fully autonomous testing for Robotaxi in Austin, which is seen as a critical validation step toward commercialization. Investors are shifting valuation anchors from car manufacturing to the grand future of autonomous driving and humanoid robot Optimus. The company's "Master Plan Part 4" also clearly pivots its strategic focus toward AI.

⚠️ Current challenges: Tough pressure from reality

Meanwhile, the core automotive business faces significant headwinds. The cancellation of U.S. EV tax credits and new tariffs have impacted short-term demand and profits, with the company warning of a "difficult quarter." Q2 2025 revenue fell 12% YoY, and net profit dropped 16%, creating a stark contrast with market enthusiasm.

Future outlook: The race between narrative and reality

Tesla's future trajectory depends on the outcome of this race:

If the narrative materializes: E.g., Robotaxi expands operations as planned in 2026 and successfully lands in key markets, the high valuation may hold.

If reality bites harder: While AI progress lags, the current sky-high valuation will face massive correction pressure.

In summary, Tesla’s stock price is an expensive bet on the future. The premium investors are paying is for its potential transformation from a car company to an AI giant—a scenario brimming with both immense potential and risk.