Rate Of ReturnHK IPO Subscription | Hansi Aitai vs. Relax Health vs. Nuobikan, how to choose in the end?
The mining results are out today, and this time luck was on my side, with one tail-end A and one mid-A both getting one lot. Probably the earliest blogger to talk about mining.
Watch the market tomorrow to sell, if it opens high and closes low, exit in the grey market (with a 10%+ pullback). If it doesn’t open too high, hold until the first day. For this kind without inclusion expectations, it’s mostly about betting on sentiment.
Hashkey’s green shoe on the first day was strong, basically predicted yesterday, not too embarrassing. But if you really don’t exit, getting trapped is on you.
Hashkey went ahead at the wrong time, which only shows they couldn’t hold on without financing. Survival comes first for opportunities. Clearly, they were late by half a year; a year or so earlier, this would’ve been the best stablecoin concept stock, not teetering on breaking issue price on the first day.
Just now, moomoo and Tiger’s US stocks also came out. This time, allocations were based on the amount, and my $30k+ got 16 shares, with moomoo slightly more than Tiger. The million-dollar big shots got a lot this time. It was quite fair. With just 16 shares, no rush to sell. The fundamentals were analyzed before—hold for a while and wait for index funds to lift.
Back to the point, the three stocks this round aren’t too solid fundamentally.
Hansoh Aita’s highlight is its HX009, but the CD47 track has mostly seen big players retreat, leaving only these Chinese biotech teams stubbornly developing.
Pfizer and Gilead, with top global R&D resources, couldn’t balance CD47’s toxicity and efficacy—why should we trust a few biotechs? The success rate is too low, but once successful, valuations could multiply 10x or 20x.
Easy Health doesn’t need much fundamental analysis due to scattered allocations.
All three are rumored to be issuing via market cap management. But does market cap management guarantee gains? That’s questionable. After all, cases like Guoxia Tech and 160 Health are rare.
Still a small bet for fun—calculate fund allocation and lottery odds carefully.
Hansoh Aita is around 69.3B, Easy Health ~17.4B, Nobi Kan ~2.5B. With a market cap limit of 350B discounted to 280B, early morning distribution might be Pharma B 220B (3200x), Easy Health 50B (900x), Nobi Kan ~10B (250x).
Hansoh Aita’s multiples lead far ahead—tail-end A and head B odds ~50%, likely better for head B under fund conflicts.
Easy Health at 900x: tail-end A likely 1-2 lots, head B 2 lots. Still better to aim for head B.
Nobi Kan tail-end A: likely 3-4 lots, head B 5-6. But betting head B at 250x isn’t wise. For Nobi Kan, tail-end A is enough—head B might get 10-20 lots annoyingly. Not a sure-win bet; big stakes unbalance mentality.
My plan: likely Hansoh Aita, remaining funds for Nobi Kan—maybe 2 lots.
Small bet for fun—Hansoh Aita 50% odds, Nobi Kan 2-3 lots. $15k-$18k market cap. Acceptable.
Avoiding Easy Health due to Futu’s scattered allocations—doesn’t mean it won’t rise, but I’m wary.
Finally, faced with the odds, gave up on Nobi Kan head B.
The above conclusions are based on public info and deductions—not professional advice. Think twice.
$NUOBIKAN(02635.HK) $HANXBIO-B(03378.HK) $QINGSONG HEALTH(02661.HK)
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