Invest in USD or gold

On the afternoon of the 12th this month, a fellow investor asked me: Should we invest in USD or gold now?

1. Core binary choice: USD + gold allocation strategy
   If only choosing between the two, prioritize "70% USD + 30% gold DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging)", with the core logic being to avoid the pullback risk of gold at its current high (4300-4400 range):

Gold DCA: Invest in segments based on price (taking $30,000 USD as an example) — invest 5% at the 4300 range ($9,000 USD), 5% at the 4250 range ($10,500 USD), and 5% at the 4200 range ($10,500 USD), avoiding full investment at once. The lower the price, the heavier the position, building a reverse pyramid. Alternatively, small fixed-amount DCA weekly/monthly to average costs.

USD allocation: Prioritize "US Treasury bonds" (high liquidity, stable returns), directly earning interest, more cost-effective than holding USD cash. Short-term Treasury bonds (e.g., 3-month/6-month, lower risk) can be directly purchased in a US stock account.

1. Beginner-friendly alternative: Domestic Nasdaq ETF DCA (no need to open a US stock account)
   If aiming for higher potential returns than USD Treasury bonds and avoiding complex operations, prioritize "Domestic Nasdaq ETF DCA":

Advantages: Diversifies tech giant risks (covering Apple, Microsoft, etc.), beginners don’t need to pick stocks, accessible via securities accounts, low threshold (starting at 100 RMB); or allocate to QQQ or domestic Nasdaq ETF for DCA.

Operation: Refer to the public account "Great Peer"s "Choosing Nasdaq ETFs", DCA a fixed amount weekly/monthly (e.g., 2000-5000 RMB monthly), first cultivate interest through stable returns, then explore US growth stocks after making profits;

Core logic: Adds an extra layer of tech growth returns compared to holding USD/Treasury bonds alone, suitable for beginners with no investment talent or who dislike hassle.

1. US stock trial transition suggestion (advanced option)
   If wanting to try US stocks, start with "low-threshold account opening + small-amount DCA":

Account opening: Prioritize beginner-friendly platforms like Longbridge, Bibei (simple process, supports small deposits), Interactive Brokers suits professional investors, not recommended for beginners yet;

Funds: Initially invest $5,000 USD to test, practice and familiarize with rules, avoid blindly chasing highs;

Targets: Beginners should not pick stocks, directly DCA into US index funds (e.g., S&P 500 ETF), or continue the domestic Nasdaq ETF approach to reduce decision difficulty.

1. Core principle: Match personal knowledge + control opportunity cost
   No absolute best choice: USD/Treasury bonds suit those seeking stability and fearing risk (earning fixed interest); gold suits hedging inflation and diversifying risk (not relying on a single currency); Nasdaq ETF suits those wanting long-term growth returns and accepting minor fluctuations.
   Key for beginners: Start with small, simple plans (e.g., domestic Nasdaq ETF), upgrade strategies after making profits, avoid confidence loss due to complex operations or high-risk targets.