【Sam's Weekly Preview】Will the Christmas gift package be delivered?

Last week, the market significantly overestimated the risks of non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and Japan's interest rate hike. After Micron's earnings report broke the wave of disappointment in the AI supply chain, market sentiment clearly reversed.
Following OpenAI's $100 billion investment from Middle Eastern capital last Friday, AI infrastructure stocks like Oracle and CoreWeave also saw a super rebound. These are all signs of improving sentiment and rising risk appetite.
Currently, market bulls also believe that reflationary pressures have eased, with core CPI rising by an average of 0.08% monthly in October-November and falling to 2.8% year-on-year, a very mild inflation level. The Fed's dovish tone is also beneficial for a firm market outlook.Overall, after last week's concerns gradually eased, the market is expected to continue rising in the short term before Christmas, confirming the traditional Christmas rally.
In terms of events, the most important this week are the US GDP and consumption data, including personal consumption expenditures and the PCE price index. Of course, there are also Trump administration policies and the issue of the Fed chair selection.
In terms of index valuations, the S&P 500's estimated PE is around 23x, at the 84th percentile of its 5-year range.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500's trend is very steady. After the last pullback to the annual moving average, it became healthier and more resilient. This minor correction retested the 60-day moving average and continued upward.Next, it is expected to challenge 6,900 points. A breakout from this triangular consolidation zone would signal a continuation to new all-time highs.

In terms of specific stocks, first, driven by Micron, the entire semiconductor sector saw unusual movements, including Nvidia, AMD, and Micron, as well as optical communication stocks like LITE and COHR. Semiconductor ETFs like SOXL are also worth watching, as is the overall tech sector's rising risk appetite, such as simple TQQQ trades.
Additionally, the crypto sector has been sluggish but may see a rebound amid rising risk appetite.Short-term rebound opportunities in MSTR, BMNR, CRCL, and COIN are worth noting.
Finally, keep an eye on this week's GDP data expectations. The latest forecast is 3.5%, slightly lower than the previous reading. If GDP slightly exceeds expectations, it could further stabilize the market.