BMNR extreme value derivation 12.23

Trading volume has shrunk before the Christmas holiday. Over the past week, ETH mostly fluctuated around 3k, getting pushed down whenever it broke 3.1k and bouncing back when it dropped below 2.9k. Under such market conditions, DAT company also has little opportunity. Continue to perform extreme value analysis by tracking mNAV, with the next coin accumulation update scheduled for 12.29.

Core assumptions: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.06 million coins, with 98,000 added last week, maintaining a high cash position of 1 billion. mNAV is 1.06 (fluctuating around 1.05 over the past week). Previously, we analyzed that changes in BMNR's cash position could reflect the company's judgment on short-term trends. This week, the cash position remains at 1 billion, not used for coin accumulation or bottom-fishing, indicating Tom Lee's continued caution about short-term trends. With only 3 trading days this week and limited ATM financing, the cash position may be reserved to handle ETH volatility during the U.S. stock market holiday.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.3k, mNAV will rise to 1.2, corresponding to a stock price of 38.5; if ETH falls to 2.8k, mNAV will drop below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 28. The extreme value range is thus 28～38.5.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)