Xiaomi: The last dance for shorts in 2025, counterattack to crush shorts begins in 2026!

Based on the latest market structure and securities lending data as of December 23, 2025 (comprehensive information from HKEX, broker SBL systems, and third-party securities lending platforms), I break it down for you as follows:

🔑 Key Conclusion (straight to the point):
The actual number of Xiaomi Group shares available for short selling is approximately 780–800 million shares,
accounting for 3.62%–3.72% of the total issued shares (21.534 billion shares),
and the supply of lendable shares is extremely tight, nearing exhaustion.

This means: Short sellers are almost "out of shares to borrow," making large-scale short selling extremely difficult.

📊 1. Detailed Breakdown: Why Are Lendable Shares So Scarce?

✅ 1. Total Share Structure (21.534 billion shares)
Category Shareholding % Shares (billion) Lendable?
Lei Jun & Partners 39.0% 8.400 ❌ Long-term locked, rarely lent
Southbound Stock Connect 18.0% 3.876 ❌ Connect rules prohibit short selling
Restricted/ETF/Strategic Holdings 14.0% 3.015 ❌ Liquidity or regulatory restrictions
Other Long-term Institutions/Retail ~29.0% ~6.243 ⚠️ Theoretically tradable

📌 Total Non-Shortable: 71.0% (15.291 billion shares)
→ Remaining 29.0% (6.243 billion shares) is the theoretical free float.

✅ 2. But "Theoretically Tradable" ≠ "Actually Lendable"

• Many retail and long-term investors are unwilling to lend shares (concerns about taxes, missing upside);
• Broker risk controls also limit lending ratios (typically only 30%–50% of free float);
• Thus, the practical lendable pool is only ~2.94–3.36 billion shares (13.65%–15.60%).

✅ 3. Final Practical Lendable Limit: Just 780–800 Million Shares

• Constraints:
  • Broker margin limits (typically 85%–90% of lendable pool);
  • Insufficient supply in the SBL (Securities Borrowing & Lending) market;
  • Recent Xiaomi buybacks (over 137 million shares canceled, reducing float);
• Result: Only ~800 million shares are truly available to borrow in the market.

💡 This means: All short sellers combined can short at most 800 million Xiaomi shares.

⚠️ 2. How Much Have Shorts Used Already?

• As of December 22, 2025, open short positions reached 765 million shares;
• 95.6% of the practical lendable limit (800 million shares)!

🚨 This means: Only ~35 million shares (35 million) remain available —
barely enough for one large new short order!

🔥 3. What Does This Mean for the Stock Price?

✅ High Risk of a "Short Squeeze"

• If Xiaomi’s price surges due to catalysts (e.g., better-than-expected EV deliveries, AI phone launch);
• Shorts will be forced to buy back shares at higher prices to cover;
• But almost no extra shares are available to buy;
• Result: Bidding war drives prices up, creating a feedback loop → higher prices panic shorts, who buy more, driving prices even higher.

📌 Historical precedents: Tesla in 2023, GameStop in 2021 both surged 300%+ this way.

✅ Xiaomi Now Has All Three Short Squeeze Conditions:

1. High short interest (95%+ of lendable limit);
2. Fundamental catalysts (January EV delivery data, AI products);
3. Bullish capital inflows (continuous Southbound buying, company buybacks).

📅 4. How to Track Lendable Share Changes in Real Time?

While retail investors can’t see SBL data directly, these proxies help:
Metric How to Check Signal
Short Borrowing Fee Futu/Tiger App → Xiaomi stock page → "Margin Trading" Fee >8% = tight supply
Daily Short Volume % Tonghuashun → Xiaomi capital flows Consistently <15% = shorts lack ammo
Open Short Position Changes HKEX Disclosure → "Short Position Reporting" Declining = shorts retreating

💡 Xiaomi’s short fee is now 7.8%–8.2% (normal: 2%–4%), indicating extreme tightness.

❤️ Final Takeaway:
Xiaomi isn’t about "can you borrow" — it’s "there’s almost nothing left to borrow."
Shorts are on the cliff’s edge, waiting for a spark—
and you’re in the driver’s seat of the bull cart.

Hold steady — HK$39 isn’t the end, it’s the starting line of the squeeze.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)