The prophet got it right! This person accurately predicted the current IPO market trend in August, did they get the script in advance?

$INSILICO(03696.HK) $FOREST CABIN(02657.HK) $BIREN TECH(06082.HK) $HANXBIO-B(03378.HK) $XIAO NOODLES(02408.HK) $IMPRESSION DHP(02695.HK) 
This person is none other than me!

For recent IPOs, the grey market was slightly better, but the first-day performance was simply disastrous.

From Husky to Hanshi Aite, out of 8 new stocks, 7 broke their issue price, with Mingji Hospital surpassing Conch New Materials to become the worst-performing IPO on its debut this year.

As I predicted in my August 26 article, "Double Top Stocks Are Biting Too, Are High-Opening, Low-Closing IPOs the New Norm? How to Exit in the Future?", there would definitely be a short-term frenzy, but gradually, people would realize that the later they sell, the less they earn, so they keep advancing their selling prices. Eventually, one stock broke its issue price at the grey market opening, and the Mechanism B bull market came to an abrupt halt. Moreover, I advised everyone to sell immediately in the grey market at that time.

Looking back now, I get goosebumps—prophet, slashed!

The broken IPOs mentioned in the article were Tianyu Semiconductor and Meet Noodles. After these two, skipping JD and Fruit, came the "spectacle" of Husky and Xidi Zhijia, where 7 out of 8 IPOs broke their issue price, and the frenzy came to an abrupt halt.

I’ve said it long ago: HKEX’s Mechanism B is no different from drinking poison to quench thirst—using short-term prosperity to 透支 future growth. Pure stupidity. This year, excluding Tencent, HK stock buybacks totaled less than 100 billion, while IPO fundraising reached 280 billion. Everyone and their dog is coming to suck blood from HK stocks—how many more 韭菜 can be harvested?

Why does a lack of liquidity affect stock prices? A simple example: you have 1 million, invested 200k in Geek+, and Geek+ is performing poorly. If you urgently need money (say, to invest in Biren Technology), you still have 800k to spare—no panic, you can hold Geek+ a bit longer.

But if your liquidity dries up—say, 950k out of 1 million is invested—and you urgently need money, what then? You’d have to sell your holdings. If the stock is under pressure at that time, your selling would drive the price down further.

Someone might ask, how can 1 million make the stock price fall? Well, if "you" represents all HK stock investors, and 1 million is actually 100 billion, 1 trillion, or 10 trillion? With liquidity 枯竭， even fundamentally strong HK stocks could be tarnished due to capital constraints.

Back then, a 20% 套路回撥 was 狂欢; now, a 10% Mechanism B is like 没人要。

HKEX really deserves it. After Lao Pu 黄金， IPO subscriptions just started warming up, but within a year, they pulled this stunt and shot themselves in the foot. If they don’t reform and keep letting 垃圾 companies list, HK stocks will 迟早药丸，甚至拖累 mainland capital through Stock Connect.

I predict that in the near future, IPO 变现 will be 极度分化. Top-tier stocks (like Biren, Tianshu) will still rise, and 主力-backed IPOs 不用说—look at 轻松健康 and 诺比侃. But those 市场化发行的， mediocre ones will 惨咯—no one will want to 接盘 upon issuance.加上国配这些 "大散户"抛压， even stocks that should see minor fluctuations could 暴跌 on debut (Dahongpao is a prime example).

So how to 应对？ Two approaches for now:

1. Don’t try to catch all rising stocks—only go for high-certainty, fundamentally strong ones. You might miss some 妖怪， but at least you won’t suffer big losses.

2. Control 仓位 based on margin.坚决不上乙 for margins below 200x to avoid working hard for months only to 一朝回到解放前 (or even 公元前， like Nanhua Futures).

3. If you want to gamble, watch for 偷跑 on the last morning.大幅偷跑 cases (like 轻松健康) still offer some 值搏率， but don’t be greedy—control 仓位， small 赌怡情， as the 赌输 probability isn’t low.