Xiaomi's Lin Bin's share reduction was finally evaluated today

After the rebound, the classic rhetoric is back: "It's all pulled by the broader market, thanks to the broader market." If you really take a look at the intraday chart and overlay Xiaomi's stock price with the Hang Seng Tech Index, the truth is clear.

Today, the Hang Seng Tech Index surged to a high of 2% before falling back to 1.4%, a clear pattern of rising and then falling. If Xiaomi's rise and fall were truly entirely driven by the broader market, Xiaomi should have followed the same downward trend. But the fact is that Xiaomi stabilized against the trend and even rose 0.6% against the trend. This pattern alone is enough to show that Xiaomi's current stock price movement has already decoupled from the broader market and is by no means "purely relying on the broader market."

I advise those who speak without thinking to look at the K-line charts and study history more, so they won't just parrot others. Back in 2020, Lin Bin's first reduction was on September 15, an unexpected large-scale reduction when Xiaomi's stock price was at a high for the year. Such a sudden reduction at a high naturally triggered a short-term drop in the stock price—a perfectly normal market reaction, both in terms of supply-demand dynamics and sentiment.

But this time is completely different! On September 25 this year, Xiaomi's stock price surged to an annual high of HK$59.9. By then, Lin Bin's holdings had long been fully unlocked, giving him the best window for a high-point reduction. He could have cashed out at this peak to maximize his gains. But he didn't. Instead, he chose to announce a reduction plan a full year in advance, precisely timed at Xiaomi's current low range. The deeper meaning behind this is clear to those who understand.

Announcing a reduction at a low point is essentially a preemptive move to prepare the market, digesting all potential negative expectations and minimizing the impact of the reduction. This approach is not negative; on the contrary, it's the most responsible statement to the market and investors, and it reflects absolute confidence in Xiaomi's future fundamentals.

More importantly, the timing of this reduction plan coincides with the eve of Xiaomi's 2027 global expansion strategy. Looking at Xiaomi's industrial layout, next year, all four of its car factories will begin mass production and delivery. Xiaomi's auto production ramp-up, sales volume, and performance realization will all accelerate. Meanwhile, its core smartphone business continues to break through in premiumization and globalization, its IoT ecosystem moat keeps strengthening, and its AI ecosystem empowerment is steadily materializing.

All the positive fundamentals are steadily moving toward realization. Short-term stock price fluctuations are just normal market sentiment games. Xiaomi's value anchor has never been short-term stock price movements but solid performance growth and industrial layout.

Right now, Xiaomi is at a low point with negative factors already priced in, fundamentals on an upward trajectory, and industrial dividends ready to unfold. Announcing the reduction early digests all the noise and clears obstacles for the stock price to rise, all in preparation for the golden cycle of Xiaomi Auto's mass production and global expansion.

There's no doubt that as Xiaomi's four car factories reach full capacity next year, its auto revenue and profits continue to materialize, and its overseas business grows explosively, Xiaomi's stock price and market cap will inevitably hit new historical highs, opening a new chapter in valuation. Those swayed by short-term emotions will ultimately miss Xiaomi's true value takeoff, while those who understand the big picture and hold onto value will reap the rewards of time.

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