BMNR extreme value deduction 12.30 Happy New Year
Due to the Christmas holiday, the overall trading volume of the market has shrunk, and it usually recovers only after the New Year holiday. BTC 9w and ETH 3k are still like a wall—once broken through, they get pushed back, and this trend has been repeating over the past week. But the good news is that BMNR has finally started staking. Since last weekend, BMNR has staked a total of 408,000 ETH, accounting for 10% of its total holdings. For the expected staking yield, BMNR uses CESR 2.81%, which is the closest indicator to ETH's "risk-free" rate.
However, BMNR's ETH holdings are the result of long-term accumulation, and there's no need to consider unbonding delays when staking. Moreover, staking can be leveraged for more investment activities in the DeFi space, which will bring higher returns than the benchmark index. Therefore, it’s entirely reasonable to expect that the yield after MAVEN goes live will exceed the CESR 2.81% benchmark. Tom Lee once predicted that MAVEN would launch in Q1 2026, but just two days after the announcement, 10% of the staking volume was achieved. It’s expected that the staking scale will ramp up quickly. With 4.11 million ETH and a 2.81% yield, full staking would generate $374 million in revenue. Given DAT’s low operating costs, this is almost equivalent to net profit. An annual net profit of $374 million would place BMNR in the mid-cap blue-chip earnings tier in the U.S. stock market, which would also bring a new valuation narrative for BMNR. Next, we’ll continue to track mNAV for extreme value projections, with the next update on coin accumulation scheduled for January 5.
Core assumptions: On Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.11 million coins, with an increase of 44,000 last week. It maintains a high cash position of $1 billion, with mNAV dropping to 0.98. The reduction in coin accumulation is due to only 3.5 trading days last week and a decline in trading volume (average daily turnover of $800 million last week, far below the December average). BMNR’s mNAV fell below 1 in the latter half of last week, and the company also suspended its ATM, resulting in lower fundraising last week. I think this is also one of the reasons why staking was initiated over the weekend. This week’s cash position remains at $1 billion, with no funds used for coin accumulation or bottom-fishing, indicating that Tom Lee remains cautious about short-term trends. The company has also kept a certain cash position as a trump card to weather the downturn. Next, we’ll focus on the recovery in trading volume after the New Year and the conclusion of MSCI index exclusions (January 15).
Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.15k, mNAV will recover to 1.1, corresponding to a stock price of 34; if ETH falls to 2.7k, mNAV will remain at 0.98, corresponding to a stock price of 27. The extreme range is thus 27–34.
Not investment advice. Thank you for your company, and Happy New Year! 🎉
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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