$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)

RKLB🚀Valuation ceiling unlocked - simplified tracking table

Key conclusion: Meeting all 3 conditions = fully open the ceiling, earliest 2026H2, stable opening by 2027

🔑3 hard conditions to unlock (all required)

1. Neutron rocket achieves dual targets (core of the core)

2. Business + gross margin dual thresholds

3. Positive cash flow (capital safety line)

⏰Timeline + key milestones + tracking actions

1 2026Q1｜Neutron maiden flight success｜✅Met = hold position; ❌Failure = liquidate to avoid risk

2 2026H2｜Neutron reusability verification + SDA bulk order delivery｜✅Loosen ceiling; ❌Delay = reduce position

3 2026 full year｜Space Systems revenue ≥40% + overall gross margin ≥25%｜✅Performance foundation; ❌Unmet = wait-and-see

4 2027｜Positive free cash flow + no large additional issuance｜✅Fully unlock ceiling; ❌Cash burn = long-term position reduction

⚠️2 fatal choke points (watch closely)

▪ Neutron schedule slippage (space industry norm, 3-6 month delay will depress price)

▪ Satellite business gross margin fails to improve