易方达香港
2026.01.06 03:10

Global central banks are taking frequent actions, and emerging market stocks are performing well

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Hello, dear investor friends, wishing you all a Happy New Year! May your investment journey be smooth sailing in the new year, with your holdings rising steadily and your returns continuously shining!

Global central banks were active in December, with varying policy directions. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% as expected, announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills, and the dot plot suggests another 25 basis point cut in 2026; the market currently believes there is an 80.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in January 2026. Additionally, Trump postponed the appointment of the new Fed chair to early this year, demanding the new chair be a "super dove" to inject more liquidity into the market. The ECB kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, while the BoE cut rates by 25 basis points in a 5:4 vote, and the BoJ raised rates by 25 basis points as expected. In China, the LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month in December, and the central bank explicitly stated it would significantly increase the scale and proportion of various medium- to long-term funds actually investing in A-shares.

Divergence in US-China PMI data, with different economic trends to watch. In the US, the final December manufacturing PMI was 51.8, unchanged from the preliminary reading and expectations but down from November's 52.2, marking the weakest expansion in five months. Slowing production growth and shrinking new orders indicate weakening demand, with tariffs pushing up corporate costs as a key factor. Overall, US manufacturing remains resilient, but the foundation for recovery is not yet solid, requiring cautious observation going forward. China, meanwhile, showed positive signals, with the December PMI returning to expansion territory after eight months, recording 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to recovering export and infrastructure demand, pre-holiday stockpiling, and policy support.

In bond markets, global bond markets saw a pullback overall last week, with the global composite index down 0.21% and the US Treasury index down 0.17%. On interest rates, US Treasury yields fell at the short end and rose at the long end, steepening the yield curve, with the 2-year US Treasury yield down 1bp to 3.47% and the 10-year yield up 6bp to 4.19%.

In equities, global markets diverged last week, with South Korea's KOSPI leading with a 4.4% surge, while emerging markets overall rose 2.3%. European markets were steady, with Spain's IBEX35 up 1.9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2.0%, while the US S&P 500 fell 1.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.8%. Overall, Asian emerging markets outperformed developed markets.

The net asset value of E Fund (HK) Multi-Asset Income Bond Fund Class A Accumulative USD Shares was 11.605*. With bond markets showing a volatile pattern recently, we will actively seize trading opportunities to further enhance portfolio returns; in equities, we remain bullish on US stocks in the medium term, focusing on capturing rebound windows after pullbacks and positioning for related investment opportunities.

Key economic data releases to watch this week:

Monday: US December ISM Manufacturing Index;

Wednesday: US December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index;

Friday: China's December CPI and PPI data;

Friday: US December Non-Farm Payrolls.

* Data sourced from E Fund Hong Kong's official website as of 2026/1/2.

Disclaimer: The issuer of this report is E Fund Management (HK) Co., Ltd. This report does not constitute an invitation or recommendation to invest in fund units. Subscription for fund units can only be made using the application form accompanied by the fund prospectus. Investments involve risks, and fund prices may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing, investors should carefully read the investment risks related to the fund in the fund prospectus (including the "Risk Factors" section). This report may only be distributed in certain jurisdictions. In any jurisdiction where the distribution of such materials or the making of any invitation or recommendation is not permitted or would be unlawful, this report does not constitute such distribution, invitation, or recommendation. This document is exempt from pre-vetting and approval by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and has not been reviewed by the SFC. SFC authorization does not imply a recommendation or endorsement of the scheme, nor does it guarantee the commercial merits or performance of the scheme, nor does it indicate that the scheme is suitable for all investors or any individual investor or class of investors. Copyright © 2026. E Fund Management (HK) Co., Ltd.

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