
Rate Of Return
Total AssetsIn less than a month, silver has surged by over 60%, soaring past 100, then 110 dollars, while gold has surged past 5,000 dollars, now exceeding 5,300 dollars, almost gaining 100 dollars every day, with a year-to-date increase of over 20%. Many feel they've missed such a huge money-making opportunity.
Those with a clear mind can see that this is a once-in-a-century, even once-in-a-millennium crazy rally. How many could have predicted such a once-in-a-century surge? I saw an investment bank expert proudly announce at the end of last year, "My judgment on gold has been particularly accurate, and I've now liquidated all my gold holdings." A couple of days ago, he said, "The upward trend in gold is far from over." Seeing gold and silver skyrocketing, experts and institutions followed suit, shouting that gold would reach $10,000 and silver $300. Their analysis boils down to de-dollarization, global instability, and industrial demand. But how do you quantify these uncertainties? Why $10,000 and not $6,000? It's all just wild guesses. To this day, humanity still lacks a model to accurately quantify future risks.
The price logic of gold and silver has undoubtedly been overturned in this frenzy of speculation. Human animal spirits have always been terrifying. How far some things will be hyped is sometimes beyond even God's comprehension. What I see is a mix of frenzy and panic—institutions, retail investors, and producers alike are all panicking about this market. No one knows where it will ultimately lead. So don’t take the boasts of market experts too seriously. Even if today’s trend is completely opposite to their predictions from yesterday, some experts will still say, "Just as I predicted yesterday."
People must learn to be humble. I think this market trend has little to do with most people. Don’t panic, and don’t be frustrated. We’ve never seen anything like this before. As I’ve said before, ordinary people should assess their own intelligence realistically and not always make things hard for themselves. The princess has married, and ordinary workers shouldn’t feel like they’ve missed out—it has nothing to do with you. By the way, here’s some comfort: Buffett didn’t buy gold either, and he’s never been frustrated. Also, China’s Duan Yongping didn’t buy gold. In their eyes, gold doesn’t generate returns. Even someone as smart as Buffett believes uncertainty is hard to predict. For example, what exactly will determine the future prices of silver and gold? It all depends on how far this panic goes and how much leverage people pile on top of it.
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