期权六艺
2026.01.30 06:46

The Hang Seng Index had a final surprise in January, and it can still be high in February.

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January was consistently dull, with the settlement day seeing a surge from the recent high of 27250 to 28000, driven by massive settlement forces. The northbound capital's straightforward and aggressive mainland style needs no disguise. This week saw no positive news to justify an 800-point daily rise, and the unpredictability of the settlement week is a traditional mindset. February, with its Lunar New Year celebrations, also follows this pattern. 27500/27000 serves as the lower support, with the former showing intraday support recently. After breaking through the top for several months, another leg up is theoretically expected. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has lagged behind global markets significantly, and a rebound would highlight the strength of Hong Kong stocks. The index hasn't seen such highs in years, so the memory is faint. The HSI's breakthrough has increased volatility, with night futures trading 300 points weaker than the day session, reflecting traders' caution. Previously, spreads often widened by 200 points, but now the opposite is true, presenting short-term trading opportunities. 27250 is the dividing line, and a rise to 29000 in February is possible. This week's near-1600-point swing is rare, matching the total of the previous three weeks. Double buying is advantageous, with index highs and lows fluctuating day and night. From Wednesday onwards, various spread options can find favorable positions for closing, differing only in profit margins. This week's HSI double-buy target of 27400 and favorable position of 27600 were visible for three consecutive days, reaching 170 points on Friday with a cost of 20 points. Low-cost leverage and resilience to pullbacks outperform high-cost strategies. The intensity of closing positions distinguishes professional retail traders from aggressive traders. In the first two days, the former could maneuver within 50-70 points, while the latter fought and retreated, using minimal profits to sprint towards the settlement day, reaping three times the usual gains. Aggressive traders rely on experience, skill, and courage, honing precision and decisiveness rather than gambling. January saw two wins and two losses, not a total failure, with a net win for the month. Institutions control the index effortlessly, and time is on the side of options. Double-buy strategies require step-by-step planning, with theory accounting for only a tenth of the effect.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

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