ETH fell, BMNR fell, and the compression of mNAV premium is a fact, but whether the mNAV compression is caused by the management's unrestrained ATM, I will share my observations. Since I update the tracking model every day, I can estimate the ATM quantity based on daily stock price, trading volume, ETH price, weekly ETH purchases, and weekly cash changes. At the same time, the estimated data will be regularly verified with the fully diluted shares announced by the SEC. I have confidence in the credibility of my data.

My conclusion is:

- From August to the end of October, mNAV was between 1.2 and 1.5, and the ATM quantity was about 5% of the daily trading volume. At that time, liquidity was good, and sell orders of over a million could also be observed, which was also the time when BMNR purchased the most ETH;

- From early November to mid-December, mNAV was between 1.1 and 1.2, and the ATM quantity was about 3% of the daily trading volume. ETH entered a downward trend, crypto liquidity declined, financing amounts decreased, and the progress of hoarding coins also slowed down during this period;

- From mid-December to now, when mNAV is between 1 and 1.1, the ATM quantity is about 2-3% of the daily trading volume. At this time, the progress of hoarding coins has turned into a fixed investment of 30,000 to 40,000 per week. When mNAV <1, there is no ATM, and cash is used to hoard coins.

DAT, as a new business model born with crypto, does not have a perfect business paradigm. BMNR is also following MSTR's lead. This model determines that ATM must be carried out under the condition of being able to raise funds without damaging the stock price momentum. But now the overall crypto market is falling. BMNR's holding cost is about 3.9k, and ETH's current price is 2.1k, with a floating loss of 46%. MSTR's cost is 77k, and BTC's current price is 75k, also falling below the cost line. Whether it is a problem with the DAT business model, corporate governance, or the overall market, everyone can judge for themselves.

I just wrote down my own research and opinions. I didn't force you to read it, nor did I charge you a penny. In other words, even if every opinion I say is wrong, you have no right to ask me to be responsible for you. If the analysis is wrong, I will reflect, summarize, and continuously optimize the system to improve the win rate. If you only know how to complain and blame, then the next time you will still lose.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

$Strategy(MSTR.US)