BMNR extreme value derivation 0203

Over the past week, cryptocurrencies plummeted, with ETH/BTC also dropping to 0.029, breaking through the 0.03～0.035 range of the past three months. This shows that in a sluggish market, funds prioritize BTC, while ETH, as a risk asset relative to BTC, has experienced greater volatility. However, on-chain data tells a different story, with daily trading volume hitting a record high of 2.5M and active addresses reaching a record high of 1M, indicating that the current decline is not a fundamental issue.

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.28 million coins, with 41,000 added last week, while its cash position dropped to 580 million. The staking progress increased to 2.89 million, with 880,000 newly staked last week, and mNAV rebounded to 0.99. Analysis of cash changes suggests that the 41,000 ETH purchased by BMNR last week was funded by cash, not ATM financing. Since January, due to the premium fluctuating around 1, BMNR has paused ATM and switched to using cash positions for weekly fixed investments of 30,000～40,000 ETH. With ETH falling to the 2～2.5k range, if the same accumulation pace is maintained, the 580 million in cash can still cover two months of fixed investments. Meanwhile, staking volume has reached 68% of holdings, generating 1.5k ETH in weekly staking income. Zero leverage + staking income allows BMNR to weather the downturn risk-free. In this scenario, BMNR resembles an ETF that tracks ETH proportionally, with everything depending on ETH's performance.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 2.7k, mNAV recovers to 1, corresponding to a stock price of 27; if ETH drops to 2.1k, mNAV falls to 0.95, corresponding to a stock price of 20. The extreme range is thus 20～27.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)