Considering the possibility of negative growth this year, it is not recommended to buy short calls, just hold the underlying stock patiently.

Currently, $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) has two areas worth watching: one is that amylin may release clinical data in Q1, which may be slightly faster than Eli Lilly; the other is that the chronic disease moat is deep, and the possibility of long-term recovery is high (such as efforts in cardiovascular and fatty liver disease).

Dividing line---Dividing line---

1. NVO is currently in a "defensive" state

① The awkwardness of CagriSema: NVO originally hoped it could significantly outperform LLY's Zepbound. But the reality is that its efficacy (22.7%) is only slightly better than Zepbound (21%), but the side effects (severe vomiting/nausea) are much worse. Doctors may prefer to let patients continue using the more tolerable Zepbound, unless the patient is unresponsive to Zepbound.

② "Inefficient consumption" of production capacity: The existing oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) requires a large amount of raw materials (due to extremely low absorption). In contrast, LLY's small-molecule oral drug does not "waste" raw materials, making capacity expansion extremely easy. Once LLY's oral drug is launched, it may quickly capture the market through price wars or convenience. Eli Lilly is far ahead in this area (already in the listing process).

2. Where is NVO's breakthrough point?

① Amycretin is the real "game-changer": NVO's real trump card is Amycretin (oral version). Early data shows it is much more effective than LLY's oral drug. But this will take time (2027-2028).

② Cardiovascular/chronic disease moat: NVO has much deeper data accumulation in areas "beyond weight loss" (such as heart failure, kidney disease, stroke prevention) than LLY. Doctors prescribe not just for weight loss but also to save lives, which is NVO's biggest trump card at the moment.