Why is the stock price of Ubtech, the first robot stock, always unable to rise?

Dear Longbridge community members, today let's talk about the hot topic in the tech circle - the "first humanoid robot stock" Ubtech (stock code:$UBTECH ROBOTICS(9880.HK))! This company was in the limelight when it listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of 2023, but its stock price has been on a roller coaster ride, dropping from a high of HK$328 to HK$129.3 on February 5, 2026 (current trading price), with a total market capitalization of about HK$65.038 billion, evaporating over HK$100 billion from its peak! Although the humanoid robot sector is touted as a "trillion-dollar opportunity," and Ubtech has made breakthroughs in patents and orders, why can't its stock price rise? I've analyzed the latest financial reports, stock price trends, and industry developments, and summarized 5 key reasons👇

1⃣ Continued losses without reversal, cash burn still under pressure

Although the loss situation has narrowed, profitability is still far away. Ubtech's net loss in 2024 was RMB1.16 billion, and the net loss in the first half of 2025 was RMB440 million, narrowing by 18.5% year-on-year, showing a trend of reducing losses. However, cumulative losses continue to expand, with expected cumulative losses exceeding RMB6 billion from 2021 to 2025, far exceeding the RMB5 billion scale of the previous five years. In the first half of 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was still -RMB371 million, and the pressure of cash burn has not eased. To replenish liquidity, Ubtech raised HK$7.6 billion through 6 share placements in 2025. Although this ensured the safety of the capital chain, it diluted the equity of existing shareholders, further affecting market confidence. Although the overseas expansion of the consumer-grade AiRROBO series has accelerated, supporting part of the revenue, the gross profit margin of such products is relatively low, failing to effectively improve the overall profit structure.

2⃣ Humanoid robots: Order and production capacity accelerate, but revenue conversion lags

Compared to the embarrassment of "delivering 10 units" in 2024, Ubtech's humanoid robot business made significant progress in 2025: the total order amount for Walker S2 reached RMB1.3 billion, the Liuzhou super smart factory was put into production, the 1,000th Walker S2 rolled off the production line at the end of the year, and annual production capacity exceeded 1,000 units. It also reached cooperation with giants such as Airbus and BYD. However, the problem of "much cry and little wool" remains unresolved: on the one hand, the RMB1.3 billion order needs to be converted over 1-2 years, and the expected annual revenue for 2025 is RMB2.006 billion, with the proportion of humanoid robot-related revenue still low; on the other hand, product pricing remains high. Although the price of the Walker series has been reduced, it is still in the high-end range. The price of TiGong Walker at RMB299,000 is still not competitive compared to similar products from Unitree, and large-scale commercialization still needs breakthroughs.

3⃣ Shareholder equity dilution, market confidence difficult to boost

Compared to the previous "palace fight" among senior executives and Tencent's reduction, the core issue in 2025-2026 shifted to shareholder equity dilution. The company conducted intensive share placements in 2025, raising HK$3.109 billion in November alone at HK$98.8 per share. Frequent financing led to the dilution of existing shareholders' equity, coupled with continued stock price fluctuations, making it difficult to restore market confidence. Although shareholder Xia Zuoquan once promised not to reduce his holdings, the commitment period expired in January 2026, and no new share purchases or stabilization measures have appeared. The positive effect of previous executive share purchases has faded. Even though many brokerages gave "buy" ratings, the stock price still struggled to break out of the fluctuation range, with a fluctuation amplitude of over 10% from January to February 2026, hovering around HK$130.

4⃣ Intensified industry competition, technological advantages difficult to turn into barriers

The humanoid robot sector is on the eve of an explosion, with the global market size reaching $2.92 billion in 2025 and the Chinese market reaching RMB8.239 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of over 60%, but competition has also intensified. Although Ubtech has 2,790 authorized patents, ranking first in the world in the number of valid patents for humanoid robots, and has made breakthroughs in core technologies such as four-eye semantic VSLAM, it has failed to turn these into market advantages—competitors such as Unitree and Yuejiang continue to adopt low-price strategies, seizing the mid-to-low-end market. At the same time, the sector is still in the cash-burning stage, and the lesson of CloudMinds' capital chain rupture is still fresh. Ubtech not only has to deal with price wars but also needs to continue to invest in R&D to maintain technological leadership, further increasing profit pressure.

5⃣ Valuation divergence highlights, bubble not fully digested

There is a clear divergence in Ubtech's current valuation: Tonghuashun data shows that the price-to-sales ratio reached 42.53 times on February 4, 2026, while East Money shows the price-to-sales ratio was 21.13 times at the end of January. Even based on the expected revenue for 2025, the price-to-sales ratio is 25 times, far exceeding the average level of the robot industry. Although some institutions believe its valuation is comparable to Tesla's new energy budding period, historical data shows that at the current valuation level, the probability of a rise in three months is only 35.65%, with an average increase of -4.09%. Market expectations for its growth have gradually cooled. Coupled with the downward fluctuation of the stock price, the previous valuation bubble has not been fully digested, and investors have become more cautious, making it difficult to drive a sustained rise in the stock price.

Summary:

Ubtech's dilemma is still a game between the "technological ideal" and the "commercial reality" of tech startups—compared to 2025, the company has made breakthroughs in reducing losses, production capacity, and orders, and the humanoid robot sector continues to heat up, but in the short term, it is still constrained by three major problems: continued losses, lagging revenue conversion, and high valuation. In the short term, if the landing speed of humanoid robot orders exceeds expectations and the gross profit margin of consumer-grade products improves, it may drive a rebound in the stock price; in the long term, we need to wait for the appearance of a profit turning point. The robot sector is still a major trend in the future. Do you think Ubtech can turn the tables against the wind?