
Commemorative
CommemorativeThoughts on individual stock investment

I am a firm believer in the Nasdaq, but as we all know, investing in indices is too boring, so today I thought about it in the car: if I were to invest in individual stocks, what kind of companies would I buy? After chatting with Gemini for a while, it summarized: "I only invest in those 'rent-collecting monopolies where customers have to buy and can't leave.'" Based on this investment philosophy, I finally selected the following 8 companies:
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $ASML(ASML.US)
But then I asked Gemini a more serious question: "Analyze whether the above companies might decline in the next decade."
Here’s Gemini’s answer:
If we were to rank them by "likelihood of decline/significant drop in the next 10 years" from high to low, my view is:
- Google (business model faces direct AI disruption)
- TSM (unquantifiable geopolitical black swan)
- NVDA (overvaluation, hardware cyclical risks)
- ASML (industry ceiling and technology roadmap risks)
- AVGO (management turnover and debt risks)
- AAPL (innovation stagnation risk, but cash flow is unbeatable)
- AMZN (intense competition, but infrastructure is solid)
- MSFT (currently seems almost flawless)
Seeing this analysis, I was quite surprised that Gemini rated Microsoft so highly. But when I looked back at history, I found that over the past few decades, Microsoft is the only "giant" that has consistently survived. Now, Microsoft is the only one among the major giants that has fallen significantly and is cheaply valued. How could I not participate?
(The above is not investment advice, just my personal thoughts on investing.)
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