$Ondas(ONDS.US)

### Analysis

1. **Information Accuracy**

The post content is basically correct. The official announcement (War Department / former Department of Defense in the 2026 context) on February 3, 2026, released the list of 25 shortlisted manufacturers for Phase I, which explicitly includes:

- Kratos SRE, Inc. (a subsidiary of KTOS)

- Teal Drones Inc. (a subsidiary of RCAT)

- Performance Drone Works LLC (PDW, in which ONDS made a strategic investment of $35 million in November 2025)

AVAV (AeroVironment) was indeed not selected, precisely because its products like Switchblade are too expensive, not aligning with the "ultra-low-cost consumables" positioning.

The total scale of the program is approximately $1.1 billion, divided into four phases. The first phase (The Gauntlet) testing will begin on February 18 at Fort Benning, with results expected in early March. The first batch of prototype orders, worth about $150 million, will follow.

2. **Actual Impact on the Four Stocks

- **RCAT**: The most direct and pure beneficiary. Teal Drones is its core asset, and the FANG series is positioned as low-cost individual attack drones, perfectly matching the current demand. The stock price has already shown a clear reaction (a short-term rise of about 3%) after the news. It is a high-beta stock with high volatility but the strongest elasticity.

- **KTOS**: A steady beneficiary. Its subsidiary Kratos SRE was selected, and KTOS itself has a larger scale and more diversified business (large target drones + small-scale technology deployment). It can both attack (win big orders) and defend (fall back on other defense contracts).

- **ONDS**: A hidden winner. It was not directly selected, but through its investment in PDW and cooperation in wireless communication technology, it has already secured a position in the upstream supply chain. After PDW's selection, ONDS can enjoy investment returns and potential technology royalties, offering high cost-effectiveness.

- **AVAV**: A short-term negative. Being excluded from Phase 1 highlights the mismatch between its high-price, high-end route and the current "cheap consumables" strategy. However, AVAV still has other high-end contracts, so it is not fatal.

3. **Overall Strategic Significance and Risks

- This marks a complete shift in the U.S. military's drone procurement toward "cheap, mass-produced, expendable" drones (similar to the experience in the Ukrainian battlefield)—no more "Ferraris," but "Toyota pickup armies." Hundreds of thousands of low-cost one-way attack drones are expected to be deployed within the next two years.

- Risk points:

- Uncertainty in Gauntlet test results (performance, reliability, and production speed will be strictly scored).

- Final order allocation may be fragmented, with fierce competition among the 25 manufacturers.

- Small-cap stocks (e.g., RCAT, ONDS) are extremely volatile, and the news has been partially digested. Further developments depend on actual order fulfillment.

Summary: The post is professional and logically clear, suitable for short-term focus on RCAT (aggressive), KTOS (steady), and ONDS (hidden leverage). It is recommended to closely track the Gauntlet results in early March and the announcement of the first batch of orders, which will be the next catalyst.

If you want to see real-time stock trends, financial report details, or follow-up test news, just let me know!