
Buffett's senior apprentice
BRK.B Diamond Holder$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) I see many old comrades from last year to now are wailing, let's do some psychological massage. First, let's talk about the impossible triangle of healthcare: quality, price, efficiency. You can only choose two. The U.S. healthcare system sacrifices price. Doctors have high incomes, R&D has high investment, and material costs are high. If you understand the U.S. and capitalism, you'll find this situation is not accidental but inevitable. Okay, back to my personal investment logic for UnitedHealth: treating it as a turnaround company. Its biggest challenges are two: high costs and political risks. Why costs are high was explained at the beginning. The first is an inherent issue—dragged down by the Affordable Care Act on one hand and premium mismatches on the other. Management has provided solutions for both, which I personally agree with. Political issues can only be resolved over time, as healthcare is indeed a Democratic stronghold, and Trump hates it too much—it's a tool to attack political opponents. But many blue states rely heavily on healthcare revenue, and some of his own people have already been hurt. Then there's the Luigi issue—public sentiment doesn't really matter. Even without UNH, replacing it with KNH or ZNH would yield the same result. The current state of U.S. healthcare is determined by cultural attributes; killing a few CEOs won't change it, and it's not subject to individual will. But ultimately, it's an insurance company, and I believe it will overcome difficulties and return to stability. Some things are cheapest when they're most expensive and most expensive when they're cheapest. UNH is most worth buying when it's least profitable (for me). When it overcomes difficulties, it won't be at this price anymore. Plus, management is trustworthy. Finally, manage your positions well, avoid leverage, and you won't die. Just my humble opinion—welcome to discuss.
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