$Coinbase(COIN.US)$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US)

$Strategy(MSTR.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)

JPMorgan private meeting (Dec 23, 2025): The key intelligence of "big squeeze" requires major revisions to the original judgment on the duration of the bear market. If the news is true, it means institutions are leading a violent cleansing with the strategy of "trading space for time." This bear market won't be a prolonged decline as in history but will feature "sharp drops, rapid cleansing, and quick recovery."

Below is the revised concise analysis:

1. Core logic: Institutions have no time to "grind the bottom" with you

Past bear markets lasted over a year because retail confidence took time to recover. But now, institutions are in charge. JPMorgan's so-called "squeeze" has a clear intent:

Goal: Not to create long-term depression but to use panic (FUD) to trigger a flash crash due to liquidity drying up, enabling efficient position building.

Method: Quickly break retail's psychological defenses (e.g., falling below key support levels), blow up high leverage, and trigger chain liquidations.

Result: Institutions accumulate blood-stained chips at low prices, while retail capitulates.

Conclusion: This artificially created "crisis" doesn't reflect fundamental recession and usually passes quickly.

2. Bear market duration: Significantly shortened to 4-5 months

Since the bear market has lasted 2 months (Oct-Dec), combined with the "big squeeze" script, the remaining time may only be 2-3 months:

Darkest hour (now - mid-Jan 2026): The most painful phase. Institutions will use the window of weakest global liquidity during Christmas and New Year holidays for a final round of violent selling. The market may see desperate "deep spikes" to fully cleanse profit-taking.

Golden pit consolidation (late Jan - Feb 2026): Post-Lunar New Year, panic subsides. Prices stop hitting new lows but oscillate at the bottom, wearing out the last bit of bulls' patience.

New cycle begins (March 2026 onward): Position transfers complete, coinciding with Q1 macro recovery, leading to a reversal.

Summary: Facing the "big squeeze," the riskiest move is to exit in panic. This bear market is a brief tactical cleanse, not a long-term strategic downturn. The pain before dawn is intense but expected to last only 120-150 days in total.