$COSCO SHIP HOLD(01919.HK)1. The global shipping industry is rapidly declining from an epic boom cycle: supply capacity has increased significantly, while global trade demand growth remains weak, leading to a sharp drop in freight rates from pandemic highs and continued pressure, with the company's profitability facing huge fluctuations and downward pressure.

2. Highly cyclical performance, profitability directly tied to freight rates: As a typical "cyclical stock," its profits fluctuate sharply with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and container freight rates, lacking a stable profit moat, making valuation difficult to improve.

3. Sustainability of shareholder returns is questionable: In the industry's downturn, the company's past high dividends may be difficult to maintain, and capital expenditures and debt pressure may reappear, affecting its long-term investment appeal.