My judgment on the switch between these two camps is:

NVDA has now changed from a "consensus growth stock" to a "stock that relies on OpenAI's success to survive";

Before OpenAI can produce GPU stack results that can suppress Gemini 3,

All new developments regarding TPU / full-stack / ASIC are bearish events for NVDA in the market.

1. Before OpenAI/B200 gives a clear signal:

• NVDA = high growth + valuation ceiling + bearish narrative → defensive or even underweight;

• GOOGL / AVGO / "TPU + ASIC route" = growth + narrative reinforcement → can moderately overweight.

2. Once the following combination of news appears (example):

• "OpenAI's new model (GPT-6) performs no worse than Gemini 3 in cross-evaluation";

• "Clearly states that the main training was completed on the B200 supercluster";

• "Microsoft's earnings report / NVDA's earnings report emphasizes that this round of models drives cloud revenue and AI services with real volume";

That will be the trigger point for NVDA to "stabilize and rise":

• The market will revise its view to:

"The frontier is not just the TPU camp, but also the GPU camp";

• NVDA's "long-term imagination space" is partially restored,

This is instead a potential time window to increase NVDA holdings / reduce some GOOGL.