In the bottoming-out phase, wait patiently!!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Today, A-shares experienced a rollercoaster ride of opening low, rising high, and then falling back. After a collective low open in the morning session, mysterious funds immediately stepped in to support the market, leading to a rapid recovery, turning a broad decline directly into a broad gain. The afternoon session saw narrow-range fluctuations grinding at the bottom, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. However, bears suddenly counterattacked near the close, causing the index to fluctuate and slide all the way down into negative territory, closing with a slight loss. It was quite a grind.

To be honest, the fact that the market could reverse directly from a significant low open today truly exceeded market expectations. It's clear that the bulls genuinely wanted to hold the line, and the full rebound of major thematic stocks was precisely to boost confidence. The fly in the ointment was that trading volume simply didn't follow suit; market sentiment remained sluggish. This reversal always seems a bit shaky, making one sweat nervously!

1. Full rebound of thematic stocks boosts confidence, but the strength is really mediocre.
After opening low this morning, thematic stocks clearly saw large funds entering to lift prices. Recent hot spots like photovoltaic equipment and gold concept stocks led the charge, and even tech stocks, which had been beaten down before, followed suit and rose.

Among small and medium-sized thematic stocks, except for consumption and commercial aerospace which lagged behind, others rose to varying degrees. It was precisely this rebound that provided reassurance for today's low-open-high-close pattern, quickly restoring market confidence. But honestly, this rebound was hardly strong; it was purely a weak bounce, lacking momentum.

2. Market sentiment V-shaped recovery, individual stock profitability effect is not bad.
The market opened sharply lower this morning, with over 4,300 stocks in the red, immediately panicking the market and retail investors. However, the market quickly recovered. After the major indices turned green, everyone's anxious hearts finally settled—it was a false alarm. Sentiment immediately picked up, also helping the bulls counterattack.

After sentiment improved, most individual stocks followed a low-open-high-close pattern, turning the market from a broad decline to a broad gain. The profitability effect was much better than yesterday. At the close, 2,749 stocks rose across the two exchanges, with 61 hitting the daily limit-up. Only with a profitability effect can confidence be stabilized, which is somewhat comforting.

3. Weak 人气 + 缩量， this reversal feels too "hollow".
Don't be fooled by the decent performance of the major indices and sectors; overall market 人气 today was truly low. Investor willingness to trade was particularly weak—either lying flat or watching from the sidelines, with no one willing to actively enter the market.

Most crucially, trading volume also dropped the ball. The total turnover for the two exchanges at the close was 2.14 trillion yuan, shrinking by 30.5 billion yuan compared to the previous session—a typical low-volume rebound. No matter how good the market looks, if no one follows the trend to enter and there's no incremental capital, it's just a castle in the air. This reversal looks very hollow, and there's fear that a subsequent pullback could send it back to square one.

4. Heavyweight stocks suppressed the market throughout, directly capping the upside.
Today's heavyweight stocks really dragged their feet! The three major financial sectors were weak and fluctuating all day, not only failing to cooperate with thematic stocks in lifting the market but even suppressing it when the major indices rose, clearly aiming to hold down the market. The liquor sector was even worse, leading the decline across both exchanges. Although liquor stocks had risen significantly in recent days, a correction is normal, but falling at this critical juncture is purely adding to the chaos.

Frankly, if financials and liquor hadn't suppressed the market today, given the momentum of this thematic stock rebound, A-shares' performance today would have been absolutely more impressive. What a pity.

I am overall cautiously optimistic about next week's market, predicting a rhythm of first 震荡， then 拉升：

Next Monday and Tuesday will most likely continue with narrow-range fluctuations grinding at the bottom, mainly to build confidence, gather 人气， and attract incremental capital from outside the market. Once capital and sentiment catch up, the bulls will 强势回归 in the latter half of the week, starting to lift prices. The pre-Chinese New Year 红包行情 will most likely arrive as scheduled.

No need to panic too much. Right now is just the 磨底 stage. Patiently wait for a wave of 放量拉升。