
Treasure Hunter"First, assume the market is right." Start by following the logic of institutions, then combine it with your own experience and what's happening to make judgments. This is the way to understand the real world.
Essentially, you are still asking me about the general valuation model I use. My method is an estimation and analysis approach that suits my own understanding. The key points and focus areas differ for each company, and that's what makes my investment subjective.
Any market consensus on standards is not a standard. Once a standard becomes a market consensus, trading volume slows down or even stops. Only controversial standards are true standards.
I have a watermelon field that produced 1 ton of watermelons. Apart from the 10kg I plan to eat myself, the remaining 990kg are negative assets for me—I have to spend money and effort to dispose of them.
You also want to eat watermelons, and you see them in the field. For you, they are positive assets, so you come to me. That’s how a "trade" happens. Many trades together create a "market."
Of course, there’s nothing wrong with you now going to look up some textbook valuation methods while knowing nothing: it’s like someone telling you how much a plot of land and a year’s labor are worth in a certain place, and then concluding how much the watermelons from that plot should be worth. That’s the textbook general valuation method, but treating this result as a standard for cheap or expensive is underestimating the market and trading.
Here’s a suggestion: first assume the market is right, then try to figure out how the market calculates the current price as reasonable. How do institutional investment reports calculate it? Then ask yourself: Is this calculation really correct? What do you think? After analyzing a few companies and industries, you’ll gradually understand the market in your own way.
To put it another way: Since you’re pursuing a more accurate and universal valuation model, why don’t you just hand your money to institutions? Is it because their models are less precise than yours, their observations of market cycles less insightful, or their data sources inferior? So this brings us back to the original question: Why open an account?
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