🌪️ [In-Depth Analysis] Xiaomi Group｜Outlook for Next Week: Finding Alpha in 'Extreme Entropy Increase'

📊 【Market Tone: High Volatility Alert】
Traders, fasten your seatbelts.
After reviewing the chip distribution and recent capital flow of $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK), next week (2.09-2.13) is highly likely to see a rollercoaster ride characterized by "initial decline followed by a sharp rally, with intense washout."
The current candlestick pattern is like driving at high speed in the fog—technical indicators are in the ICU (weekly bearish alignment), but market sentiment is in the KTV (extremely active short-term speculation).

This divergence usually means: The dead time is over, and bulls and bears will reach a new consensus this week through a violent "chip exchange."

🏭 【Fundamental Logic: Chaos Before Dawn】
From a macro perspective, the EV battlefield at the beginning of 2026 remains bloody. Although SU7/SU8 delivery data is stable, market concerns over gross margins continue to weigh on the stock price. Coupled with the recent liquidity issues of the Hang Seng Index, major capital has been on the sidelines.
However, there's no smoke without fire. The "restlessness" shown on the charts suggests there might be a catalyst (even if just sentiment-driven) this week. We don't bet on news, we only react.

🗓️ 【Scenario Projection: Anticipating the Main Force's Trading Rhythm】

Based on volatility models and key time windows, next week's rhythm is highly likely to be a three-act play of "digging a pit—filling the pit—explosion."

🔴 Monday/Tuesday:【Liquidity Sweep】

Anticipation: Extreme pressure. The morning session might use market panic to stage a downward "fake fall" to test the previous low support (around 34.00-34.50 range).
Technical Logic: This is a typical Capitulation signal. The main force needs to flush out panic selling through a sharp drop, completing the final washout.
Subtext: "Don't hand over your bloody chips during the early-week decline."

🟡 Wednesday:【The Pivot】

Anticipation: A sharp increase in turnover between bulls and bears. This is the "eye of the storm" for the entire week. If the washout is completed early in the week, Wednesday is highly likely to see a volume-driven engulfing pattern, attempting to break through the daily MA10/MA20 resistance levels.
Focus: Watch the afternoon capital flow. If it can stabilize above key moving averages, it means the right-side signal is confirmed.

🟢 Thursday:【Short Squeeze】

Anticipation: Emotional release. If the reversal is confirmed on Wednesday, Thursday will be the main upward wave triggered by short covering.
Target: This day has the strongest momentum, likely to recover the early-week losses and even touch the strong resistance zone above.

⚪ Friday:【Take Profit】

Anticipation: Choppy finish. Considering weekend uncertainty, profit-takers who chased on Thursday will exit on Friday.

⚔️ 【Trading Strategy: Left Side vs Right Side】

⚠️ Risk Warning: Extreme volatility this week, strictly no full-position bets on one direction!

👉 Left-side Traders (Counter-trend Ambush):

Opportunity: If there's a sharp drop to around 34.20 on Monday/Tuesday accompanied by divergence, it's an excellent point to bet on a rebound.
Risk Control: Keep position size at 20-30%. Must set a stop-loss order. If it breaks below the previous low of 33.30, exit unconditionally. Don't catch a falling knife.

👉 Right-side Traders (Trend Following):

Opportunity: Wait for the confirmation signal on Wednesday. If the stock price breaks above 35.50 with volume, then enter to follow and catch the meat on Thursday.
Logic: Better to buy high than to buy wrong.

💡 【Final Summary】
This week's Xiaomi chart might look as thrilling as an EKG.
At this level, panic is the best cover for the main force, and greed is the biggest tomb for retail investors.
Before Thursday is opportunity, after Thursday might be a trap. Stay sharp, and good luck to all. 💸