Learning Contrarian Investing in U.S. Stocks from "Young and Successful" and "Reverse Success"
Recently, I binge-watched a web series called "Young and Promising" and had some thoughts. In the show, people laugh at Pei Qian for "wanting to lose money but making a fortune"? Actually, he stepped on the market's cognitive BUG! This logic is exactly the same as contrarian investing in US stocks. When others panic and sell, you bottom-fish, and when sentiment recovers, you profit from the spread. As young people say: go against the grain, but don't be reckless!
Pei Qian's "Reverse Success" = A "Behavioral Finance Lesson" in US Stock Contrarian Investing
The plot in the show → market reality, all are clever moves that exploit human weaknesses.
- Herd Effect → When everyone runs, don't follow
Pei Qian avoids the "trendy startup track" and chooses the sinking market → In 2024, Silicon Valley Bank blew up, everyone frantically sold small and medium-sized bank stocks (actually, most banks met capital adequacy requirements), bottom-fishing at this time is a steal! - Anchoring Effect → Don't be blinded by short-term noise
Pei Qian "anchors on loss targets" and ignores user demand → Last year, the AI bubble burst, the market only focused on "poor commercialization" and complained, but missed the breakthroughs of medical AI in clinical settings (these stocks later skyrocketed). - Overreaction → Use "expectation gaps" to make money
Pei Qian sells goods at low prices and is praised for "unbeatable value for money" → A certain company reported a single-quarter loss, its stock price plummeted 30% (but long-term cash flow is stable), you buy low, and when the market reacts, you make a killing!
Pei Qian's Four-Step Money-Making vs. US Stock Contrarian Investing "Copy-Paste Guide"
Don't think it's too professional, Pei Qian's "slacking off operation" is a ready-made template!
Three Major Minefields, Don't Be a Sucker!
Contrarian investing is not "buying trash," it's "picking up misplaced treasures." Absolutely avoid these three pitfalls.
- Value Trap = Expiring Snacks
Looks cheap (P/E < 5), but fundamentals are rotten (e.g., a certain new energy company's technology is obsolete, market share dropped from 15% to 3%) → Check ROE! If it's below the industry average for 3 consecutive years, just leave. - Liquidity Risk = Money Locked in a Safe
Market cap < 100 billion, average daily turnover < 1 billion → When you want to sell, there's no one to take it! → Use Yahoo Finance to check "Avg. Volume," try not to touch if it's below 100 million.
Trend Decline = Don't Jump Out the Window of a Descending Elevator - The industry is long-term dead (e.g., traditional fuel vehicles), no matter how cheap, don't buy → Check Congress.gov for policy subsidy directions (e.g., now subsidizing hydrogen energy, avoid the fuel vehicle chain).
Useful Toolkit for Free!
No need to spend money on Bloomberg, these tools are enough.
- Find Undervalued Stocks: Finviz Screener → Set "P/B<1 + Div Yield>3%," get a list with one click!
- Check Financial Reports: Seeking Alpha Earnings Summary → Focus on "Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Growth," positive is reliable.
- Track Policies: Congress.gov → Search for industry keywords (e.g., "regional bank"), see if there are subsidies/regulatory relaxations.
- Check Liquidity: Yahoo Finance → Enter the stock ticker, look at "Avg. Volume" (average daily turnover).
Final Words
Pei Qian's success is not "good luck," it's using low prices to test real demand; contrarian investing is not "being contrarian," it's using rationality to find value obscured by emotion.
When everyone in your social circle is shouting "US stocks are crashing, run!" you open the SEC website and take a look at the company's "report card." Real money-making opportunities always belong to the minority who are "greedy when others are fearful"!
Like Pei Qian, go against the grain, but don't be reckless, and you too can find "bargains" in US stocks～
(ps: Fans of the show can rewatch "Young and Promising," this time focusing on Pei Qian's moves as an "investment lesson," it's amazing!)
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